Home | Comment & Analysis    Sunday 27 June 2021

Sudan should avoid war against Ethiopia

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By Mahmoud A. Suleiman

This article comes against the backdrop of the threats of the Arab Republic of Egypt to launch fierce warfare against Ethiopia over the filling and operating of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The proverb says that sedition is asleep; God’s curse is on those who awaken it.

Sudan continued suffering from the decades of Egyptian exploitation, which has plunged Sudan into hard-to-resolve suffering; especially the woes its citizens in the former Halfa region went through and they were displaced from their homes and lost their farms and possessions to be moved to the unknown. Sudan should beware of getting involved in dirty political axes and falling into the trap from which it is impossible to get out.

According to analyses of international experts, including Sudanese scientists, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project has many benefits that Sudan and its people will reap. Furthermore, Sudan is said to benefit from the GERD more than Ethiopia and Egypt and there are 5 major benefits awaiting for Sudan according to Asad al-Barari.

However, the Egyptian government is trying to implicate Sudan in its dispute with Ethiopia over the giant dam, as it caused before in the displacement of the citizens of Sudan to New Halfa when building 1960s, the Aswan High Dam, which was complete in 1971. Further, it caused the flooding of the Old Halfa area and the displacement of its residents to the New Halfa. So, now as if history is repeating itself at the expense of the interests of the Sudanese people and worse of all will be Sudan getting involved in Egypt’s war against Ethiopia. We know that the Renaissance Dam has benefits for Sudan, such as reducing the Nile flood disaster, in addition to supplying Sudan with electricity that will be generated from the Renaissance Dam. Therefore, Sudan should not get involved in the conflict between Cairo and Addis Ababa! It is, without doubt, a risky political bid of sawing the seeds of take up arms again.

The Head of the Transitional Sovereign Council General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok and the opposition political parties should not mislead the Sudanese people and mobilize them to the myth that Ethiopia wants to go against the interests of Sudan. This step is dangerous and inciting to get involved in a long losing war, knowing that the governments of Sudan have been fighting against their own interests and against the interests of their people since the dawn of independence. The Sudanese governments fought unnecessary wars against the Sudanese citizens especially the components of its people in the southern part of Sudan for decades, which forced those citizens in the southern districts to resort to the option of secession to establish their state, which is the current Republic of South Sudan. Let alone the crimes against humanity, war crimes and genocide in which the regime of the ousted al-Bashir has been implicated. Accordingly, the people of Sudan should be careful not to get involved in other wars, but rather they should seek peace to build a nation that was destroyed by wars since the dawn of Independence from the Anglo-Egyptian Condominium on Sunday the First of January 1956. It seems that the Egyptian regime wants to recolonize the opinion of Sudan after its failure to continue its former colonization. Those daydreams will achieve nothing but they are like a mirage that the thirsty individual thinks it is water while he is in the depths of the Sahara Desert. Thus, Egypt’s efforts will go in vain! At this age, the Sudanese political acumen has sharpened enough to put its own interests above the interests of others.

I thought at this point it is beneficial to provide some background information about (GERD).

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), formerly known as the Millennium Dam and sometimes referred to as Hidase Dam, is a gravity dam on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia under construction since 2011. The dam is in the Benishangul-Gumuz Region of Ethiopia, about 15 km from the border with Sudan.

Important figures related to the (GERD) Installed capacity: 6.35 GW (max. planned) Height: 145 m Construction began: 2 April 2011 Opened: July 2020.

Lately, there has been a lot of clamours and talk about the issue of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) since the announcement of its construction by Ethiopia, and as it is known that the dam is for generating electric power only, and it has no other tasks, at least this is for Ethiopia, and Sudan is thought the most among the three countries that will benefit from this great dam. Let us at this stage summarize the benefit of (GERD) in a number of points as follows:

1/ It is known that the Blue Nile is the most important tributary of the Nile, and it comes within three months, from mid-June to mid-September, after which the Nile will be weak and not suitable for agriculture or electricity generation for Sudan, and the construction of the Renaissance Dam will make the flow of the Nile regular throughout the year, as it will make Sudan benefits from it in increasing its agricultural cycles to three per year instead of one.

2/ The Renaissance Dam will also make the electricity generation of the Merowe Dam regular and permanent.

3/ it will also prevent the Renaissance Dam that comes to Sudan annually and costs the state billions in maintaining dams.

4/ the electric energy generated by the Renaissance Dam is very cheap, and it can dispense with Sudan from constructing any other dams on the Nile.

5/ The most important thing is for Sudan to recover its entire water share, from which ten billion cubic litres were going to Egypt, and with the construction of the Renaissance Dam, and the increase in agricultural cycles, Sudan will benefit from its full share, and it can store the surplus in the Renaissance Dam.

Here is the horse stall, as Egypt would lose 10 billion cubic litres annually, which was coming to it free of charge from Sudan’s surplus quota, so there were missteps and the media attack on Sudan, and the threat and the demagogic military threat that we will come to later.

As for the talk about “the dam’s collapse”, it is one of the lamentable jokes that come from what they call themselves “irrigation and agriculture experts.” Unfortunately, the corruption of the Renaissance is being built by highly qualified European companies, and they have built many huge dams around the world, with technical studies, consultations and others one of the things that guarantee the safety of the dam, and these same experts make statements that are closer to “jokes,” which is that the Renaissance Dam, which was built using very modern methods and techniques in the twenty-first century, can collapse, and the High Dam, which was built in the sixties of the last century with very backward Soviet technology, will not collapse. What is even stranger is that there are those who declare that the High Dam can withstand a “nuclear bomb.” These statements give you a vision of the level of education of those experts, for whom we do not know any achievement except to slander and lament over their media channels.

With regard to the military option against the Renaissance Dam, the Egyptian government has recently carried out very “vile” operations, which do not result from the “policy of honour” claimed by their officials, by inciting the Ethiopian rebels who are in Eritrea to attack the Renaissance Dam, and thank God Almighty, as a result, The intelligence, security and military cooperation between Sudan and Ethiopia was the Sudanese warning and help in fending off these militias, and they were dispatched by the Ethiopian army before they reached the dam. In an attempt to destabilize the security and stability of Ethiopia, it is also trying to destabilize the security and stability of Sudan by supporting militias in Libya and the state of South Sudan.

The military option against the Renaissance Dam is an illusion and imagination, as Egypt currently does not have any ability to strike the dam militarily, and any military action against the dam is tantamount to declaring a war that Egypt will not be able to confront, especially since Sudan will be among those affected by any military action - if it happens. There will be no submission at that point. Military action against the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam requires a military might arsenal and the ability to continue the war, which is not currently available to Egypt, so we say to all the “strategic” experts who crack our heads that an option is a military option, that words are easier than deeds, and do not try to attract lights and cameras towards you with reckless statements and dreams She has no legs.

Therefore, I say to all those who write to the page inquiring about the hydropower dam, that the GERD is more beneficial to Sudan than any other country, and more beneficial to Sudan because of the regular water it provides throughout the year, and to restore Sudan’s right from the wasted water that goes without Sudan benefiting from it in anything, as The dam seizes very large quantities of silt that provide billions of dollars to the Sudanese state treasury that were used in the maintenance of Sudanese dams, and any statements here and there by those “media muscle experts” do not pay attention to them, and that waving the military option against the dam is the same delusion, and a kind of kind Imagination is raised only for the sake of “media blowing” and lying to peoples By Asad Al Barari.

Eckhart von Hochheim is commonly known as Meister Eckhart or Eckehart, who was a German theologian, philosopher and mystic, born near Gotha in the Landgraviate of Thuringia (now central Germany) in the Holy Roman Empire; he has been quoted as saying: “ God is a great underground river that no one can dam up and no one can stop”.

Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman is an author, columnist and blogger. His blog is http://thussudan.wordpress.com



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