Home | Comment & Analysis    Saturday 20 July 2019

Change in Sudan requires consensus between civilian and armed forces


By Mahmoud A. Suleiman

Cleansing the Effects of the Systematic Demolition of the State of Sudan Over the past 30 years requires a minimum consensus agreement between the components of the Sudanese opposition both civilian and armed
By Mahmoud Suleiman

The Sudanese People’s Revolution, which broke out against the ruling regime of tyrant Omar al-Bashir, is not expected to reap its fruits as quickly as possible with the presence of the fifth column and the deep state. Thus, the running saga between the Transitional Military Council (TMC) and the Forces for Declaration of Freedom and Change (FDFC) is not something unexpected.

I thought it is my duty as a Sudanese citizen to share my views regarding the ongoing negotiations between the components of the Sudanese opposition, represented by the Forces for Declaration of Freedom and Change and the Transitional Military Council (TMC) on the one hand, and the intensive international intervention in Sudanese affairs at this pivotal time. And the other reason for my humble participation today is that my last article was under the title of “Betrayal of the Sudanese December Revolution Continues with insistence.” By Mahmoud A. Suleiman published on 05-26-2019 in the SudaneseOnline cyber Journal. https://sudaneseonline.com/.

Since then, heavy waters have been flowing in the form of a flood under the Sudanese political bridge. Unfortunately, a large number of unarmed peacefully demonstrating citizens have been shot and seriously wounded with live ammunition bullets from snipers belonging to the Sudanese army forces of the ousted regime, as well as the Janjaweed militia forces, and I have called for an investigation into the carnage. Moreover, I prayed for speedy healing for their wounds along with transparent legal accountability to determine the perpetrators of the crime and to impose the appropriate punishment on them.

The current running saga between the Transitional Military Council (TMC) and the Forces for Declaration of Freedom and Change (FDFC) is not something unexpected given the magnitude of the doubts and distrust surrounding the components of the Transitional Military Council (TMC), most of which is an integral part of the ruling regime of the ousted National Congress Party (NCP) led by deposed genocidal criminal Omer Hassan Ahmed al-Bashir.

The political process between the Forces for Declaration of Freedom and Change (FFDC) of the Sudanese revolutionaries and the military junta, better known as the Transitional Military Council (TMC) which is more or less belongs to the deposed regime, is nothing but just another episode in the on-going saga of their competing interests for achieving each other’s scoring points. It is clear that the thirty years’ rule of the Dictator Omer Hassan Ahmad al-Bashir who was the seventh President of Sudan from 1989 to 2019 took power through a military Coup d’état and founder of the infamous Muslim Brotherhood Movement (MBM)led National Congress Party (NCP) and ruled the Sudan with iron fist exercising absolute power in an oppressive draconian and ruthless way until Thursday the 11th April 2019 when he was overthrown by a popular uprising that became the third Sudanese glorious Revolution on the row following its predecessors in 21st October 1964 and April 1985. It is noteworthy to report that Sudan’s modern history has been plagued by military coups. Since the independence of Sudan in the 1 January 1956, to date, 62 years ago, more than 11 military coups or coup attempts have taken place, and two popular revolutions have overthrown two powerful military regimes. Since independence, the military has ruled for 45 years, extending over three convulsions, as opposed to 11 years for democratic civilian governments for three periods as well. Other coups by the military juntas occurred during periods of military rule and civilians. The coup d’état of General Ibrahim Abboud in November the 11th 1958 (6 years), Jaafar Nimeiri on 25th May 1969 (16 years) and Omar al-Bashir on 30th of June 1989 (continuing almost 3o years as of June 2019) are the most prominent in Sudan.

It is no exaggeration to say that Sudan, since its independence in 1956, spent a lost age among the generals and uprisings until it became exhausted by the current change. The succession of revolutions and coups drained the resources and stability of the country, rupturing its unity and dwarfing its map. The prowess of the Sudanese parties to dispel the democratic sweeps is not matched by the military’s ability to seize any chance of regaining control and seals.

Sudan has now folded the arbitrary page led by Omer al - Bashir. Now it is important to listen to the voices of the people and restore their confidence. Sudan is in dire need to avoid the risk of sliding into chaos. This assumes that parties and unions have learned the lessons of the past. Moreover, the Transitional Military Junta Council must have learned lessons from the past itself. Sudan needs protected stability by the will of its citizens and a government that seeks to compensate for what has been lost, a government that cares about the problems of poverty, unemployment, health services and education in the shade of the Triad of Freedom and peace and justice. In the history and science of negotiation, it is not expected to obtain all, because of the status of taking and giving in some stages of negotiations. This is more so, especially when coming out of a prolonged oppressive rule as in situations such as in the case of Sudan today.

The Endless To and Fro of the negotiations between the Transitional Military Council (TMC) and the Forces of the Declaration of Freedom and Change (FDFC) and the demand of absolute immunity by the (TMC) for the leaders of the former (NCP) regime including themselves and the reservations of the components of the Sudanese opposition at the Addis Ababa Marathon meetings. Thus, the Marathon negotiations between the Transitional Military Council (TMC) and the Forces of the Declaration of Freedom and Change (FDFC) over the absolute immunity for the leaders of the deposed National Congress Party (NCP) regime continued unabated while the reservations of the components of the Sudanese opposition in the Addis Ababa Marathon meetings continue delaying inking the expected agreement. Worse, being the lack of coordination between the Khartoum group’s deliberations and those of Addis Ababa counterparts led to the renewed conflict between armed groups and the Khartoum’s group Fait accompli agreed document which has turned a blind eye to the rights of the components of the armed movements in Darfur and in the Nuba Mountains and Ingassana. The rebel Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF) announced its rejection of the political agreement initialled by the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) and the Transitional Military Council (TMC), saying that the approach adopted was flawed and unacceptable and would complicate the national process. http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article67789

Postponement of the negotiations of the Transitional Military Council and the Freedom Declaration forces change to a date to be determined *

There has been a rush of news in the News media outlets indicated that negotiations scheduled for Friday, July 19, 2019 between the Transitional Military Council (TMC) and the Forces for Freedom and Change (DFC) to sign the constitutional decree were postponed to another day to be determined, after differences of opinion emerged within the forces of change in which the signed document was rejected.

The African-Ethiopian mediation set the Friday, July 19, 2019, to complete negotiations on the outstanding points of disagreement and the signing of the Republican decree, but the forces of change requested a postponement and is expected, according to informed sources to issue a press statement on the matter.

Simultaneously with the postponement Processes marched to the Green Square area in the capital Khartoum and the demonstrators remained present until the evening today, the Thursday 18 July 2019.

It is thought 8 threats are facing the Sudanese political settlement. They include:
• Doubts and distrust
• Military coup
• The collapse of the unity of "Forces for Declaration of Freedom and change"
• Rebel Movements’ Dissatisfaction with their share of the booty
• Counter-revolution, which may be headed by the remnants of the National Congress Party of the deposed the Omar al-Bashir
• It is no secret that the Saudi-Emirati –Egyptian Triad of evil axis has thrown its full weight to direct the course of the Sudanese revolution towards its fundamental interests in Sudan.
• Last and by no means the least is the collapse of the Economy which undoubtedly led to the deterioration of Sudanese living conditions, high prices, scarcity of essential goods, currency scarcity and the deterioration of health and education services were an important factor in the outbreak of the popular revolt against the Bashir regime. The continuation of these situations is a real threat in the coming period, especially since Bashir’s regime is behind a legacy burdened with the economic failure of destroying major economic projects, falling national currency prices to the lowest levels in Sudanese history and a decline in banking and civil service. Many are betting on regional support with its own agenda, which could be a phased treatment that could be interrupted when agendas differ.

Bertrand Arthur William Russell, 3rd Earl Russell, OM FRS, the British philosopher, logician, mathematician, historian, writer, essayist, social critic, political activist, and Nobel laureate, has been quoted as saying: “This idea of weapons of mass extermination is utterly horrible and is something which no one with one spark of humanity can tolerate. I will not pretend to obey a government which is organising a mass massacre of mankind”. https://quotes.yourdictionary.com/massacre

The Poet of the Tunisian Revolution, Abu al-Qasim al-Shabi says in his Poem the Philosophy of the Holy Serpent:
That peace is a lie ... and justice is a philosophy of false flame
No justice, but the Power Parity ... And the Clash of Terrorism with Terrorism

Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman is an author, columnist and a blogger. His blog is http://thussudan.wordpress.com/

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