Home | News    Wednesday 15 April 2015

South Sudan’s warring parties set to escalate fighting ahead of rainy season: report

separation
increase
decrease
separation
separation

April 14, 2015 (ADDIS ABABA) – A new report of conflict assessment on the war-torn South Sudan warns of intensification of fighting between warring parties as they race for control of more territories ahead of rainy season.

JPEG - 20.7 kb
A soldier from the South Sudanese army stands in front of a vehicle in South Sudan’s Unity State on 12 January 2014 (AP)

In a Tuesday report released by the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA), it said there were indications that South Sudan army (SPLA) loyal to president Salva Kiir and opposition forces (SPLA-IO) loyal to the former vice-president, Riek Machar, were preparing for intensified violence in the next coming months.

“As was often the case during the second civil war, the end of the dry season (from April to June) should see an intensification of the current conflict as both sides seek to maximise the territory under their control before the rains begin,” partly reads the report.

HSBA says the SPLA-in-government wanted to make maximise the use of the dry season during which it can be able to transport its troops and heavy weaponry across the country when roads are still passable.

“SPLA sources say that if the army does not attack now, it risks missing a window of opportunity, and becoming entangled in rainy season skirmishes with the SPLA-IO,” the report revealed.

It however cited failed attempts by the government’s offensives to regain more territories from the opposition forces in the past two months in Unity and Upper Nile states.

The document also suggested potential divisions from within the two warring parties, warning of further splintering or switching of sides.

While the report mentioned unspecific internal political division within the rebel group in Upper Nile state, it said divisions within the government in Unity state was surfacing between the caretaker governor and a militia commander allied to the government.

“There is a campaign to remove Joseph Nguen Monytuel, the current governor, reportedly supported by Matthew Puljang, the head of the South Sudan Liberation Army (SSLA) – a militia allied to the SPLA – and one of the most important military commanders in the state,” it says.

Governor Monytuel is the brother of Bapiny Monytuel, one of the most important SSLA commanders, and his appointment as governor following the dismissal of Taban Deng Gai in early 2013 was partly a means of ensuring that the SSLA stayed loyal to the government.

The assessment also painted a gloomy picture of further humanitarian catastrophe in case of intensified violence, particularly in the states of greater Upper Nile region.

Other two regions of Bahr el Ghazal and Equatoria – home to Kiir and his deputy, James Wani Igga, respectively – are relatively peaceful as the 15-month-long war and its disastrous consequences have been successfully confined to the Upper Nile region – home of opposition leader Riek Machar.

A cessation of hostilities agreement which the two parties signed since 23 January last year has been violated and not holding.

East African regional bloc, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), which has been mediating in vain between the two warring parties for the past 14 months, has expanded the mediation to include countries and international bodies beyond the African continent.

An IGAD-Plus new mechanism to include member states of the African Union (AU), troika (US, UK and Norway), European Union (EU), China and the United Nations is expected to resume the peace talks on unspecified date later this month to try to persuade the principal leaders to sign a final peace agreement and end the war.

UN and troika have threatened to impose targeted sanctions on individual leaders seen to be blocking the peace process. The sanctions would include travel ban, assets freeze and arms embargo.

(ST)

Comments on the Sudan Tribune website must abide by the following rules. Contravention of these rules will lead to the user losing their Sudan Tribune account with immediate effect.

- No inciting violence
- No inappropriate or offensive language
- No racism, tribalism or sectarianism
- No inappropriate or derogatory remarks
- No deviation from the topic of the article
- No advertising, spamming or links
- No incomprehensible comments

Due to the unprecedented amount of racist and offensive language on the site, Sudan Tribune tries to vet all comments on the site.

There is now also a limit of 400 words per comment. If you want to express yourself in more detail than this allows, please e-mail your comment as an article to comment@sudantribune.com

Kind regards,

The Sudan Tribune editorial team.
  • 15 April 2015 09:47, by Mayom County Boy

    my fellow communities fighting is not a solution to this war
    let us united our selves to have peace is the solution to this conflict .

    repondre message

  • 15 April 2015 11:18, by Juma El-Saidi.

    I wonder why all the times the cattle keepers are troublesome. You people have stayed long in Equatorial Land and you do not want to learn their peaceful lifestyle of living. Everyday new stories about fighting. I feel obscure to hear about the two leaders President Salva Kiir and Dr. Riak Machar, remember these two are the problems in our country.

    repondre message

Comment on this article



The following ads are provided by Google. SudanTribune has no authority on it.



Sudan Tribune

Promote your Page too

Latest Comments & Analysis


What Makes an Uprising? 2021-09-03 17:29:45 By: Dr Lam Akol* In an undated article, Hon. Atem Garang de Kuek discussed what was required for an uprising in South Sudan to succeed as did three uprisings in the recent history of Sudan (...)

Is IGAD partly responsible for current confusion in South Sudan? 2021-08-21 09:41:17 By Bol Khan In April 2016, Radio Tamazuj posted and answered questions about the fainting Security arrangements or demilitarization of the capital, Juba as stipulated in 2015's signed ARCSS and (...)

South Sudan People Coalition for Civil Action (PCCA) is to create warlords 2021-08-19 11:06:28 By Steve Paterno In South Sudan, where just about everyone has access to guns (tons of them), and almost every ambitious politician is a potential warlord, any slight destabilization of the (...)


MORE






Latest Press Releases


Statemeny bu Hala al-Karib to UN Security Council on women conditions in Sudan 2021-09-15 11:59:16 Statement by Ms Hala Al-Karib to the UN Security Council 14 September 2021 Madam President, Excellencies, My name is Hala Al-Karib and I am the Regional Director of the Strategic Initiative (...)

Joint Communiqué on the visit of H.E. the Prime Minister of the Republic of Sudan to Juba 2021-08-23 11:23:26 19 – 21 August 2021 His Excellency Dr Abdallah Hamdok, Prime Minister of the Republic of the Sudan and Chairperson of IGAD, accompanied by Ministers of Defence, Foreign Affairs, Trade, (...)

S. Korea supports UN communities building resilience project in Sudan’s Blue Nile 2019-09-09 09:26:41 UNDP Sudan September 5, 2019 (KHARTOUM) - An agreement was signed on 5th of September between the Korean Ambassador, His Excellency. Lee Ki-Seong and Dr. Selva Ramachandran, Resident (...)


MORE

Copyright © 2003-2021 SudanTribune - All rights reserved.