Home | News    Friday 19 October 2012

IEA forecasts drop in Sudan’s oil production through 2017


October 19, 2012 (KHARTOUM) – Sudan is not expected to see any jump in oil production in the next five years despite intensified efforts by Khartoum to expand exploration per figures released this week by the West’s energy watchdog.

Sudanese Oil Minister Awad al-Jaz turns the tap to start pumping oil again from the war-damaged Heglig oil facility on May 2, 2012, 12 days after occupying South Sudanese troops left the area (Getty Images)

According to the ’Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2012’ issued by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the East African nation will produce 70,000 oil barrels per day (bpd) this year which will jump to 90,000 bpd in 2014 and drop to 60,000 in 2017.

The Paris-based agency cautioned however, that it has "deliberately" exercised caution when making projections for several oil-producing nations which included Sudan and South Sudan saying that "circumstances [there] change every week, affecting our views on both the short and medium-term supply outlook".

"Sudan and South Sudan are expected to rebound to a combined 360 kb/d [thousand barrels per day] by 2015, though still 100 kb/d [thousand barrels per day] less than 2010’s sum total, and remain broadly at these levels until 2017," reads the report.

Sudan lost approximately 75% of its oil reserves following South Sudan’s secession in mid-2011 which put the country under fiscal duress with the sharp drop in revenue and hard currency inflows that resulted from the breakup.

But the government in Khartoum hoped to offset part of the deficit through charging landlocked South Sudan for transporting its oil through the north’s infrastructure. But following disagreements on the fee that should be assessed for the service, South Sudan shut down its oil production earlier this year.

Last month a deal was struck between the two nations to resume oil exports after an understanding was reached through African mediation on the transit fees. But the remittances will still fall well below what is needed to close the budget hole.

Last July, Sudan signed oil exploration and production-sharing deals with Canadian firm Statesman Resources Ltd as well as Chinese, Nigerian, Australian, Brazilian and French companies.

Furthermore, seven blocks were awarded for the first time, while some companies joined previously awarded contracts for two other blocks.

But according to Reuters, analysts are skeptical that Sudan will increase production anytime soon as companies are expected to carry out for years magnetic studies first. Efforts to boost production from existing fields have been hampered by a scarcity of dollars needed to bring in better equipment and technology.

On Tuesday, the veteran Sudanese oil minister Awad Al-Jaz acknowledged that his country will not reach its goal of 180,000 barrels per day this year but will likely hit it in Q1 2013. He said that Sudan is currently producing 120,000 bpd but that it could rise to 150,000 bpd the end of this year.

It is not clear why a discrepancy exists between IEA figures on Sudan’s oil production compared to official ones.

"We have our blocks and we are working hard to raise production," al-Jaz told reporters at an industry conference in India according to Reuters.

The minister expressed optimism that more oil discoveries will be made in the coming years.

"We offered last month 9 blocks and had around 72 companies competing for them," Al-Jaz told Reuters.

"We signed with a number of them and some of the blocks already have discoveries of oil and gas," he added, but did not name the companies.

French explorer Maurel & Prom has signed a memorandum of understanding with Sudan for an offshore block, a government official said later. The company will review seismic data on the block and could sign a production sharing contract with Sudan in two months, the Sudanese official said.

This month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reclassified Sudan from an oil exporter to an oil importer to reflect the new situation resulting from the independence of South Sudan.

"Sudan....is now classified as a country with nonfuel primary products as the main source of export earnings," the IMF said.

Last April South Sudan’s army temporarily occupied the oil field of Heglig, which produced around half of to Sudan’s oil output according to government figures. The fighting caused significant damage to the infrastructure in the area and it is unknown whether full capacity oil production has been resumed there.


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  • 19 October 2012 08:31, by siddaw

    Good news. Where will these shallow minded Arabs go if their oil is consume? Sell Sudan to South Sudan? Lets wait and see how it would happen on 2017.

    repondre message

  • 19 October 2012 08:37, by Sudanese123

    The reality of the situation is that the NCP has not only run out of oil. They run out of clueless sympathisers, investors and ideas. They have run out of any ability to govern Sudan!

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  • 19 October 2012 08:39, by Kenyan the cushite

    Kenya is expect to have 20 billion barrels of oil and gas, SS n Uganda has alot.East Africa will be top 3 biggest exporters of gas by 2020 reserves now with reserves of 150 trillion cubic feet of gas and exploration is just starting, we will be rich, our economy now in EA. is growing at 8% without the gas. :) with SS joining us will will be great. SS welcome. fake arabs will be eating sand. :)

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  • 19 October 2012 08:46, by Kenyan the cushite

    from SS down to Mozambique is teh new middle east. read the newspapers. they find giant oil and gas fields every week. soon ethiopia will join us with Ogaden basin. SS has alot more oil because of existing oil collecting formations from SS- uganda-kenya-mozambique. too bad fake arabs of sudan. we will get rich and you will be poor. our armies will grow. :) i cannot wait untill the day.

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    • 19 October 2012 09:02, by Robot


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      • 19 October 2012 09:37, by Loko El Pollo


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        • 19 October 2012 10:18, by South South

          Sweet, our fake Arabs in North are going to beg for food forever, we will see them pouring to South Sudan looking for jobs. We must screen them when they come to our land. I know now why they are selling out their young man to Liyba. Poor Country. Laughing.

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    • 19 October 2012 15:28, by zulu


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  • 19 October 2012 10:09, by Jalaby

    To Sudantribune,
    This report you posted is false and biased and completely naked of truth!
    We saw it by our eyes many times when the Sudanese oil deputy minister Mr. Faisal Hammad visited the two new oil fields:in block 6 Hadeida & Boraisa in block 17 and we saw the new pipeline that under process now to connect them to Al-Fola and become productive by

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    • 19 October 2012 10:15, by Jalaby

      the end of this year!
      I hope Sudantribune doesn’t ignore the celebration by the end of this year when president Al-Bashir inaugurates the production of these new oil fields the same way when Sudantribune ignored to cover the celebration of opening the new giant Sugar factory, the White Nile Sugar Factory despite Al-Bashir made a very important political speech that day!

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      • 19 October 2012 10:31, by South South

        Your country is one of the poorest country now because South Sudan is not there to be milked like before, you must think about coming to South Sudan to look for a job and before you do that you need to send a request to South Sudan. you can be denied Jalaby, poor country called Sudan

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      • 19 October 2012 11:12, by mohamed mahgoub

        The end of this year is only 70 days away ,we waiting for a miracle from heaven!

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    • 19 October 2012 13:28, by Chol

      Sudan was made popular by IEA because of South Sudan massive oil reserve but now Sudan popularity with IEA is going to be a thing of the past. To Jalaby, please, you can have your own comments but you’re not going to have your own facts!

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    • 20 October 2012 01:11, by Observer

      So you were there in person "we saw it by our many eyes"
      We all know how the media ( on all sides) manipulates photos/stories etc to present their own agenda.
      If you actually weren’t there and saw this through a Govt contolled paper agenda- maybe it may not have happened either?
      You seem to be accusing the IEA of lying as well?

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  • 19 October 2012 11:08, by Gabriel KK

    IEA has got it right and Sudan is talking of 120 barrels per day because they wnated to steal South Sudan oil again. WARNING ! take your hands out of our oil this time and stick to your 70 bpd or else you will remian as a losers for centuries.

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  • 19 October 2012 16:05, by solider

    anyway in few weeks the north will be sharing your oil wether you like it or not.you promised u will shut the oil till lamu pipe is built.what happened ? can’t keep your words???

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    • 20 October 2012 03:35, by Hardball

      Solider, please don’t rejoice yet, wait until you have oil money in your packet!

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  • 19 October 2012 16:30, by panchol

    This time you have to be very faithful if you have strong believe to avoid stealing. The following are watching the pumping of our crude oil:
    1.The senior politicians
    2.Security forces
    3.women Union of SS.
    4. Youth Union of SS
    5.community elders 6.Babies of SS 7. animals of SS. etc.

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  • 19 October 2012 16:50, by panchol

    we have not kept to promise, because there is International pressure, that indicates agreements between two countries. we have even built local refineries in South Sudan while we have aloan of. that can cover five years while Lamu Project is a plan of three years time. South Sudan has a lot of oil and Gold reserves.

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