Home | Comment & Analysis    Tuesday 8 July 2008

Horn of Africa: Odd maybe but all is possible


By Ibrahim A. Ibrahim

July 7, 2008 — The whole Horn of Africa, momentarily is instate of delusions. The region is almost in its dysfunction, lucking all the necessities that bring the whole region politically and economically together.

The interventions of countries that has hidden agenda on imposing the wills and interests as such the USA, put the nationalities and the indigenous citizens of the region to harm. To complicate matters even further, some leaders of the Horn countries are selling their peoples and theirs to live in a dignified respected sovereign nation.

Despite all that there are some signs that the horn is not going to fail. Sudan for example is earning some positive outcomes from its Naivasha agreement that brought to an end the military conflict of both North South Sudanese citizen. It is considered to be a bold step toward solving the whole problem Sudan is facing. This hope was reinvigorated when the Easter Sudanese problem was solved and peace realized. Both the Niavasha and Asmara peace agreements for the South Sudan and Eastern Sudan respectively, despite its short comings have achieved tangible progress to the level the citizens who benefited from these peace are enjoying political and economic stability. Unfortunately, the Darfur issue took unwanted path and went out of control of the owners of the involved parties. This left the case to be hijacked by the so called "Conflict Resolution" studies and implementation ideologists, which complicated more than it is needed, as there are interest groups who does not want this problem solved once and for all.

Somalia, seems to suffer more than ever and the suffer does not look like to halt in the near future. It is totally complicated by the intervention of Ethiopia under the guise of Islamic (Jihadist) movement, who are evolving to attack Ethiopia. Unfortunately, the government of Ethiopia did not have the authority to decide what to do as far as the Somalia concern. The design and strategic orders come from Washington DC. So, Ethiopia’s plan will not be known unless the information is retrieved from Washington.

The Transitional Government of Somalia, can be able to solve the problem by sitting in a round table with all the Somali citizen without any preconditions, provided Somalia is free from the occupation of Ethiopia. Otherwise citing with the current transitional government in Somalia is tantamount to recognizing the occupation of Ethiopia. Somalia being a sovereign nation, it should take its own problems to its own hands. Therefore, Ethiopia’s vacating of Somalia is a prerequisite to the pilar of peace in Somalia. Of course there are some who argue that Somalians were by themselves the whole Sixteen years but did nothing to solve their problems. That is logical argument, however Ethiopia did not intervene at Somalia’s worst civil war, but only involved once it observed that under the leadership of the Islamic Court, Somalis were unifying. Ethiopia thought that strong Somalia is a treat for it, and with that the personnel in charge of the Horn in Washington DC read its analysis from the Ethiopian point of view and order Ethiopia’s aggression and occupation of Somalia. The land of Somalia might have been occupied by Ethiopia but the spirits of Somalis are still free and are fighting for a free Somalia. Needless to say Ethiopia’s unconditional withdrawal will bring total reconciliation among the Somalis and can bring their country out of chaos, as well as contribute to the regions peace.

Djibouti’s unfortunate claim of military confrontation with its neighbor Eritrea is very unfortunate. Since the claim comes from the side of Djibouti only, it is very difficult to understand the reason behind this conflict. Eritrea still maintains that there is no conflict against neighborly nation Djibouti. Hoping the case will be solved in a manner that satisfies the parties without external influence and interference, however if others put their hands on the issue, it will bring more of "Conflict Resolution" study groups and others that will never bring peaceful solution.

Ethiopia’s lack of implementation of the "EEBC" Eritrea Ethiopia Border Commission, ruling and followed the virtual demarcation, and still Ethiopia occupies a sovereign Eritrean Land, is a recipe for conflict. Again the government of Ethiopia is obliged to accept and vacate the occupied land of Eritrea. But that may not be viable as long as the regime in Ethiopia is bowing to the orders that come from Washington.

Ethiopia is also in internal political and economic crisis. Few months back Ethiopia announced its economic growth has reached double digits and soon will equate the Asian Tiger countries. In contradiction to what has been said though, Ethiopia is now asking assistance to feed over 4.5 million of its population some in dire situation. Not only that the situation in Oromia, Ogaden, Tigrai, Gondar, and with in the circle of Amhara region are getting worst. The regime sitting in Addis Abeba is not working hard to solve internal and external problems. As long as hands from Washington is still extended the regime will care less for its citizens.

The author is the Former Bank of Eritrea Administrator currently resides in United States of America. He can be reached at Ibrahim_Ibrahim@experienceworks.org

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