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DOCUMENT: World Bank Analysis of South Sudan post-oil shutdown economy


May 8, 2012 (WASHINGTON) – In response to numerous requests, Sudan Tribune is making the report used for the story ’EXCLUSIVE: South Sudan economy on the verge of collapse, World Bank warns’ available to our readers.

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The flag of South Sudan flies after the United Nations General Assembly voted on South Sudan’s membership to the United Nations at UN headquarters in New York July 14, 2011 (Reuters)

Yesterday the World Bank issued a statement saying that Sudan Tribune’s story "misrepresents the nature and content of the dialogue between the World Bank and the Government [of South Sudan] and development partners".
According to the attached documents, South Sudan is quickly headed towards an economic disaster as a result of its decision to halt oil production because of a dispute with Sudan on how much the landlocked nation should pay to transport and export its crude through Khartoum’s infrastructure.

Oil is the economic lifeline for both nations but South Sudan in particular relies on crude exports for 98% of its income.

"The World Bank is deeply concerned with the economic and development impact of the unresolved oil issues and how this will affect the people of both South Sudan and Sudan, particularly the most vulnerable," World Bank said in its statement yesterday.

"Given the desperate living situation being faced by people in both Sudan and South Sudan, the World Bank’s economic analysis unambiguously shows that it is in the interests of both countries to resume talks urgently," the Bank added.

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) ordered both nations last week in a Chapter VII resolution to resume negotiations on several key post-independence issues including oil. An agreement need to be reached within four months after which the mediation will propose a solution.

Both countries announced their acceptance of the resolution but Khartoum pressed concern on the tight deadline among other reservations.


PDF - 6.6 Mb
World Bank Analysis March 1, 2012 (ST)
PDF - 2.2 Mb
G-6 response to World Bank assessment March 11, 2012 (ST)
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  • 9 May 2012 03:57, by Mr Point

    The World Bank does not express any view on how South Sudan should respond to the proposed transit charges for oil demanded by Sudan. Does the World Bank think South Sudan should pay as much as $36 per barrel to have its oil transported?

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    • 9 May 2012 04:58, by Mou

      You are right, they are not talking about South Sudan, they want to push South Sudan so that they can benefit from it. In other word, they are broke after South Sudan halt its oil. There are big powers who work day and night to fool South Sudan to failure and if South Sudan government accept to pay $36 per drum, they will see by themeselves in few years to come from Bashir as Bashir will buy more.

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      • 9 May 2012 05:00, by Mou

        missiles, main battle tanks and more navy from our oil and turn them against us should South Sudan continue with its claim of Heglig and other contested areas including Abyei

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        • 9 May 2012 05:38, by mohammed ali

          Mou, now you are relaxing in Australia not knowing what is happening in SS.Let us go with you senario of belligrancy, hate & war mongering.How can you fight now, how can you weapons, amunition, fuel & salaries for your soldiers.How can you negotiate after your hands voluntarly.I am from Sudan,I tell you clearly that these SPLA theifs had given S a weapon they would never dream of: Shutting off PL!

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          • 9 May 2012 05:42, by mohammed ali

            Mou, correction ...after you tide your hands voulntrly and strangulated yourself...

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        • 9 May 2012 05:52, by Chol

          With the Lamus’s project pipeline up and running as plan, the heat is up high in Khartoum and the desperation is out of control!

          No, it’s not both countries that are in economic trouble, it’s only South Sudan; So, Sudan should stop worrying about South Sudan, Sudan should be concern about itself.

          South Sudan will be fine; they know exactly where they are going!

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      • 9 May 2012 07:06, by Biliu

        It’s true that we will suffer for some time, but the decision taken by our leadership is the most courageous one around this time, 36% percent a barrel is preposterous.

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    • 9 May 2012 05:02, by Mach

      Sudan may need an urgent talk with South Sudan now but it’s too bad, South Sudan is already working with Ethiopia and Kenya on Lamu’s project pipeline.

      There is an old saying out west that says “Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me”.

      No offend to Sudan but sorry, South Sudan has the option to say no future business with Sudan!

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    • 9 May 2012 05:14, by LL Reuben

      So what is the point here? Sudantribune! Is South Sudan economy going to colapse because of her decision to disagree on the transit fees charged by Khartoum? Or is the Word Bank blaming South Sudan for making that dicision? Whichever the case I believe this story is political because its lacks intregral analysis. Why doesn’t Khartoum unreasonable proposed fees ring to the ears of critics? Crap!

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    • 9 May 2012 05:30, by mohammed ali

      Mr.Point,it is just a sad story!The AU presented 4 offers to S & SS all were turned down by SS.The mediators or the AUHIP includes advisors from the world bank,IMF and other European experts.The proposal were blessed by US,UK & Norway "troika" Let us put like this,NCP,jalaba or whatever putting knife on your neck,saying:pay $ 36 or you die? What will you do? I think the answer obvious!

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      • 9 May 2012 05:39, by LL Reuben

        Mohammed Ali,

        You’re a delusional punk. There has never been any reasonal proposal put forward by your terrorist regime in Khartoum lead by fugitive Bashier in regard to trasit fees. Forget whatever you claimed to have been "blessed" by the Europe and America. You maybe confortable as a mouthpiece for the NIF but the clock is ticking pretty fast on your government.

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        • 9 May 2012 05:56, by mohammed ali

          Reuben,propably you are one who are getting the looted money in your Asylum in Australia.Come down & try to live one day in Juba ,just one day.It is written in all news papers that offers were made by the AUHIP.Alex de Wall , wrote in the New Your Times on the 2nd day of shutting down the PL: SS is kiking it’s own Doomsday!You can go on your abusive language while ignoring your dying pple.Pathetic

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          • 9 May 2012 06:16, by LL Reuben

            Mohammed Ali,

            Greedy unreasonable proposals are not categorize as such in my world. If you want to sharply speak on behave of your NIF you should state facts and not seductives lies. Talking about dying folks, I guess those dying in N.M, SK, and Durfur are not people and are rather "insects" as your idol Bashir puts it. Isn’t it a shame and you don’t think your ’doomdays’ are approaching. Sorry

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      • 9 May 2012 05:45, by LL Reuben

        Mohammed Ali,

        Your’re a delusional punk. There has’ver been any reasonal proposal put forward by your NIF in regards to trasit fees forget being blessed by Europe and America. The clock is ticking on your regime and very soon you may find yourself in a different side of the things which are comming.

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        • 9 May 2012 06:09, by mohammed ali

          Reuben, are you sober?Are sure that you are not still drunk? What clock you are talking about? Did you read these reports & understood them clearly? There were 4.7 millions & there will be anothe 3.6 starving. Do your math 4.7+ 3.6=8 millions ,this is the total population of SS according to the last cesus!Have you got any heart in your chest? Very pathetic!

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          • 9 May 2012 06:29, by LL Reuben

            Mohammed Ali,

            If having a heart means fabricating and spreading lies then I shall never want to have one. Satifying yourself with your imaginary facts must be an awesome feeling for you. Even an insane Bashir will NOT agree to your make up numbers of ’starving’ people in South Sudan. If the entire population of South will go starving soon, by then the north is already a ghost state. Simply!

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      • 9 May 2012 06:24, by Agutran

        Ali, it’s unfortunate that the time ran out of that senseless game of $ 36.00 per barrel transit fee! Yes; your proposals were blessed by U.S, UK, & Norway that’s why South Sudan is now working with Ethiopia, and Kenya for their Lamus’s project!

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        • 9 May 2012 06:40, by mohammed ali

          Agutran,look at these documents again!See the word realistic very prominent.Be realistic! Lamus’s project is not going to be built for free. You need a loan? Greece a member of EU was almost strangulated to get a loan from the EC central bank.Do you realisticly excpect to get to a 6 months old state, with a shut down PL, rampant corruption, and a government which is seen by it’s friends as "no ...

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          • 9 May 2012 06:48, by mohammed ali

            Agutran,..."as a government who has focus, no strategy and no ability to comunicate it’s goal" Lamu project will take at least 4 years, if you get money! Lamu project is a dreem.If there is a project why would Salva ask China to build PL? Do you think Sudan will allow you to use it’s PL , now you are collapsing.Keep your $ 36 to hurt us until you die with your hatred!,,,,con

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            • 9 May 2012 06:59, by mohammed ali

              Agutran,in your crussade to hurt us, you didn’t shoot your own foot, you shot your self staight between the eyes!Time didn’t run for the 36 dollars, time has ran out for SS to remain as a state, the SPLA thiefs to remain in power! The letter of the G6 is a warning letter!This is most irresponsible government on earth ! Had never happend before!

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    • 9 May 2012 06:02, by LL Reuben

      Northern terrorists,

      Anticipating South Sudan economical collapse is as silly as your frequent chants of Inhshllah and Ahlakbar. It’s pathetic and ridicolous to burry your heads in the sand and forget the history in just a nick of time. South Sudan has never had any existing economy all these years it been fighting Khartoum, so the South is just creating its economy.

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  • 9 May 2012 05:32, by Lang

    GoSS needs to see page 5.
    If this report is true, they are failing South Sudan.

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    • 9 May 2012 06:01, by Lang

      They critic but give no solution, what exactly would the world bank and G6 want South Sudan to do, let the north continue taking all of the oil exports as they were prior to the oil shut down???

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  • 9 May 2012 05:44, by Akol Liai Mager

    News from North Sudan:
    ????? ???????
    ????? ??? ????? ?????? ????? ???? ,??????? ,????????, ???? ????

    ????? : ???????? : (?? ??? ????? ???? ?? ?????? ?? ????? ??? ??? ????? ?? ???? ????????, ??? ???? ????????? ??? ??? ?? ?? ???? ????? ???? ??? ??? ????) ?????, ??????? ?? ??? ?? ???? ?????? ?????? ??? ????? ?????? ???? ??????? ???????? – ???? ????? ???? ??? ?????? ?????? ???? ???? ???? ??? ?? ???

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    • 9 May 2012 05:52, by Akol Liai Mager

      (?? ??? ????? ???? ?? ?????? ?? ????? ??? ??? ????? ?? ???? ????????, ??? ???? ????????? ??? ??? ?? ?? ???? ????? ???? ??? ??? ????) ?????, ??????? ?? ??? ?? ???? ?????? ?????? ??? ????? ?????? ???? ??????? ???????? – ???? ????? ???? ??? ?????? ?????? ???? ???? ???? ??? ?? ??????.

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  • 9 May 2012 05:48, by Grader

    These attachments aren’t authentic!

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  • 9 May 2012 06:17, by Sundayw

    Sudan Tribune is eager to publish this propaganda rubbish as a way to create anxiety among the people of South Sudan. We were without a functioning economy before! Heck, we didn’t even have currency that lost value. That was merely 7 years ago. So we can easily revert back to our former ways and handle this with calm. WB, US, UK, and international community want us to give our oil to jallabah.

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    • 9 May 2012 09:49, by Konan

      Some people are too dumb to understand anything at all, definitely u had neither functioning economy nor currency, but someone was taking care of the basic needs of ordinary people, someone was paying salaries, supplying food and providing medicine, while the thugs of SPLA/M were too busy destroying and looting everything their hand reached and still doing and expecting that one to do their job.

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  • 9 May 2012 07:13, by mohammed ali

    These Australien South Sudanese dont care about their own ppl.It is a ver sad story!

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  • 9 May 2012 07:49, by viper

    Those millions of Dollars that were looted by SPLM leading figures and send them to their private accounts in the western Banks can built pipelines, railways, tarmacked roads and any oil extraction requirements, why not return these money back to the country if there was a nationalism from those thugs of the SPLM?. Shame will always be on the looters. May God help our poor ss on ground

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    • 9 May 2012 07:58, by viper

      Iam totally convinced that we have no alternative here unless the thugs bring back the looted properties of the pple of S. Sudan back. These figures are a curse to our country, not a blessing. Leaders who do not care of their citizens, those who loot their poor citizen at daytimes without fear from God, those who have taken their sons abroad for good studies and begin to close the universities whe

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      • 9 May 2012 08:05, by viper

        Where the sons of the poor pple were studying, those who are sick of V8 and hummer in a country where there is no roads. Those who always laugh at their poor pple when they ask them for a bread. Do these pple have God in their Dictionaries? Do they really pray? If they use to pray, then they might be having a hiden agenda. What a great curse to our poor pple. O God bless south sudan

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  • 9 May 2012 09:09, by Abraham

    To all ARABISED AFRICAN MUSLIMS of North Sudan
    Most People in South Sudan live in rural areas. They don’t have structured economy. Investment, they have none. Income,is mostly on substantial farming.Consumption is only their lands and animals. No Export. No Import. Your Nemeiry used to called South Sudan as HEAVEN ON EARTH. It’s still heaven.We will survive just like for last 50years of injustice

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  • 9 May 2012 09:15, by Abraham

    Remember too that South Sudan is a country endowed with rick natural resources. I wish I could take you to Western Equatoria where Bananas and mango trees dominate bushes. Have you ever visit sudd regions with its riches of fishery. Not to mention the blessed Equatorial rainfall through out South Sudan. Skunks, all these resources are the envy of your types.

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    • 9 May 2012 11:27, by Konan


      We don’t envy u, wish u something bad or take joy at your pain, u r the one who started trading insults and filthy words in this forum. I wish one day will pass without reading the usual crap ( son of slave woman, fake Arab and Muslims...etc.) U have the skill of turning every simple political differences into racism and hatred.Pls.try to change your aggressive mentally and attitudes.

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    • 9 May 2012 12:28, by mohammed ali

      Abraham, why don’t you come to live in this heaven? You are just a selfesh creature! Why you were fighting since you want your pple to remain just in the same conditions for the last 50 years! Did you understand what is written in this report? Your cattle could be bought for pea nut, if your economy collapsed.It is unfortunate that the poor,needy, vulnerable & marginalized will suffer badly!

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  • 9 May 2012 09:32, by Catch 22

    All along, I had serious doubt about the closure. It was done hastily with no plan B in place. Let’s face it brothers. Our pride has let to the death of many in the past and this shall kill many more in the days to come. If we were able to share the oil 50/50 during the interim period of the CPA why can’t we pay the $36 in one year while expediting the Lamu project in the interim.

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  • 9 May 2012 09:37, by Catch 22

    We could have shutdown after securing an alternative pipeline. Now it is clear that we are facing hardship, regardless of how we feel about past injustice from Khartoum, the government has responsibility to protect the people of south Sudan. How will it help us if our country collapse and so is Beshir’s. It doesn’t negates that it will be at the expense of everybody except those who have looted.

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  • 9 May 2012 09:47, by Catch 22

    I feel for the poor in both countries. Some politicians want to prove a point at the expense of the masses who have to put up with "BULLSHIT" in the name of leadership. Some commentators in this site are pure morons and most likely beneficiaries of corruption. The hawks in both countries have won the day.

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  • 9 May 2012 10:01, by Catch 22

    Nationalistic emotion is being wipe in the north Sudan and independent thinking is being strangle in south Sudan. Sycophancy is elevated to the level of "art" in South Sudan these days. The opposition in both countries have fail to give alternative leadership in both countries. Nobody can comfortably project alternative view without being branded a sellout. God save us!

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  • 9 May 2012 12:40, by mohammed ali

    Catch 22, you are very sensible man. If I were in a such a situation I will divide 75/25 % .I know some pple will say this Arab wants to cheat us! Well, cheating you is far much better than killing yourself!These SPLA thugs, are just there loooooting & sending pple to die for no obvious reason.For god sake, they deprived themselves from any power when they sit on the negotiating table! ...con

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    • 9 May 2012 13:01, by mohammed ali

      ..These ignorant thugs have marginalized all the educated pple living in SS!You are third class citizent if you were not in the bush fighting with them: " where were you you when we were fighting to liberate you?" They will ignite another war , very soon! Because they think that they will defeat SAF and force into an agreement which they favoured.This insane..insane!They wont win it!

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