Home | News    Wednesday 6 August 2014

S. Sudan think tank warns against exclusion of rival leaders

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August 5, 2014 (JUBA) – Any transitional government formed without the involving South Sudan’s two rival leaders may not easily be sustainable, the Sudd Institute, a local think tank has warned.

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South Sudanese president Salva Kiir (L) and rebel leader Riek Machar sign a cessation of hostilities agreement in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, on 9 May 2014 (Photo: Reuters)

“The international community may be tempted to join the call for the exclusion of both President [Salva] Kiir and Riek Machar from a transitional government. This is indeed an enticing proposition since both leaders are seen to be the cause of the current crisis. However, this is actually a trap that the international community should steer away from,” partly reads the Sudd Institute’s 19-page report.

“The proposition is impractical because these leaders hold the key to permanent peace in South Sudan because they have got the constituencies”, it adds.

The group warns of possible outbreak of violence similar to what caused last year’s outbreak of chaos, saying both president Kiir and rebel leader Machar are very prominent leaders in their respective constituencies.

“For example, if President Kiir is excluded from power and he does not support that arrangement, his men in the army will definitely threaten any new government. Anything that removes President Kiir from power will be interpreted as a defeat; hence his supporters will not accept it, especially if president Kiir is unhappy with such arrangement. The same is true for Riek Machar. Anything that excludes them from power is a no deal,” the report stipulates.

Both leaders, it argued, command considerable following among the communities of Dinka and Nuer, two of the country’s largest tribes and that this was basically the reason why the current conflict is largely seen as a Dinka versus Nuer affair.

“The most practical approach to ending the war is a transitional government of which both President Kiir and Riek Machar are part, along with other important stakeholders, including the former detainees,” the report said.

The think tank also likened South Sudan’s current conflict to the Kenyan situation and that it would develop into the Kikuyu-Luo political scenario, it not properly handed.

“If not handled well, the development of an ethnic-based politics akin to what Kenya has whereby the Kikuyu, the majority tribe, makes sure that a Luo person, from the third largest ethnic community, does not come to power,” says the institute’s report.

“If this situation was to happen in South Sudan, it would be extremely difficult to achieve peace and stability,” it adds.

According to the renowned think tank, a transitional government where the leaders would share power without considerable reform agenda will not bring a durable solution to the ongoing conflict.

It further says the international community, through a coalition with Europe, should support an agreement that incorporates grand transformation agenda in a manner that benefits the average South Sudanese.

“Any power sharing agreement can be a win–win mechanism for the citizens and the politicians if such an agreement includes an elaborate reform agenda, including a broad-based new constitution and social development,” the group said in its report.

WARNING ON SANCTIONS

The group further argued against imposition of sanction as one of the alternative option seen in the regional and international political and diplomatic arena to put bearing pressure on the rival warring parties to make them accept peaceful dialogue option.

“We recommend a constructive diplomatic engagement instead of antagonistic or coercive diplomacy. This includes ceasing any unhelpful media campaign against either the government or the rebels,” the group said.

A constructive diplomacy, it added, means that the international community should drop its pursuit of sanctions against South Sudan or individuals within the government of South Sudan and the rebels because sanctions tend to antagonise.

Thousands have died and over a million displaced since violence broke out in Juba, before it later spread to South Sudan’s Upper Nile, Unity and Jonglei states.

(ST)

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  • 6 August 07:00, by wang

    Of course stupid Kiir was defeated by Dr. Riek despite of those $bbbbbbbbbb—billions of dollars she spends on armies…the reasons she is still hanging on in this president seat is because of those foreign troops she was hired with our money…

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    • 6 August 07:16, by Toney Toney Matot

      Wang,
      you are very stupid,
      when did you have capacity to defeat SPLA? it is 1991 in making which your retarded Riek Machar was defeated and shamefully ran to Khartoum and got fucked by Omar Elbitashir.

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      • 6 August 08:10, by Mr Point

        It is obvious that neither side can achieve a military victory over the other - even if they fought for 20 years.

        Any peace settlement must involve both leaders, unfortunately for the ordinary civilian.

        And so the war that Kiir started when he tried to kill Machar will end with him welcoming Riek back as his VP. The Juba faction will not like this but will have to accept it.

        Back to Square one

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        • 6 August 15:24, by Ahmed Chol

          Those running the Sudd institute are stupid. Why do they object to sanctions. Sanctions are the best tools to deter this fool called Kirr

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          • 6 August 18:25, by Mi diit

            Kikuyu-Luo scenario can NEVER happen between Dinka and Nuer. South sudan is not Kenya. This is why there is war. Remove UPDF, JEM, spla-north, 63 tribes and half Nuer from supporting Dinka and see the result. The self-proclaimed Think-Tank is bias and shallow minded.

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  • 6 August 07:35, by dinkdong

    Stupid think tank! What do you know. Let those bastards (Kiir and Riek) be excluded from the transitions government and be hit with sanctions. They deserve it.

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  • 6 August 07:53, by Madina Tonj

    Wang: I think you are the enemy of peace otherwise, your claim on defeat Salva Kiir Mayardit is baseless. Why not just eating in your exile instead of pushing others innocents Nuers to be kills. You knew nothing but food yes, having say that because you think Riek Machar is good to you guys but in reality he is betraying the Nuers belief me or not you will realizing when it is too late to correct.

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  • 6 August 07:54, by Madina Tonj

    Wang: I think you are the enemy of peace otherwise, your claim on defeat Salva Kiir Mayardit is baseless. Why not just eating in your exile instead of pushing others innocents Nuers to be kills. You knew nothing but food yes, having say that because you think Riek Machar is good to you guys but in reality he is betraying the Nuers belief me or not you will realizing when it is too late to correct.

    repondre message

  • 6 August 07:54, by Madina Tonj

    Wang: I think you are the enemy of peace otherwise, your claim on defeat Salva Kiir Mayardit is baseless. Why not just eating in your exile instead of pushing others innocents Nuers to be kills. You knew nothing but food yes, having say that because you think Riek Machar is good to you guys but in reality he is betraying the Nuers belief me or not you will realizing when it is too late to correct.

    repondre message

  • 6 August 08:19, by Madina Tonj

    To: Dhieu Mathok Diing, Mabior Garang M. Remember the day of apology made by Riek Machar on April/2012. He did made apologies about his massacres in Dinka Bor community saying, giving apology is the best way of bring peaceful and said, he do not want to pass these painful to our children one month later when asked he said, he made apology to Dinka Bor just to fool the family of late Dr. Garang M.

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  • 6 August 08:19, by Madina Tonj

    To: Dhieu Mathok Diing, Mabior Garang M. Remember the day of apology made by Riek Machar on April/2012. He did made apologies about his massacres in Dinka Bor community saying, giving apology is the best way of bring peaceful and said, he do not want to pass these painful to our children one month later when asked he said, he made apology to Dinka Bor just to fool the family of late Dr. Garang M.

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  • 6 August 08:37, by Madina Tonj

    Dinka Bor brothers and sisters. Put in mine that, I am not pro- Salva Kiir Mayardit but I would rather defending history of our late Dr. John Garang de Mabior and 2 million Southerners Sudanese who had lost their lives just to be free. Did you real asks Mrs. Nydeng Garang and her Son Mabior Garang? Look the silence of Twic in Dinka Bor has brought a shameful to all Twic Bor communities.

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  • 6 August 08:38, by Madina Tonj

    Dinka Bor brothers and sisters. Put in mine that, I am not pro- Salva Kiir Mayardit but I would rather defending history of our late Dr. John Garang de Mabior and 2 million Southerners Sudanese who had lost their lives just to be free. Did you real asks Mrs. Nydeng Garang and her Son Mabior Garang? Look the silence of Twic in Dinka Bor has brought a shameful to all Twic Bor communities.

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    • 6 August 10:58, by LabotoNyom KobiYe

      Mi Tot/Gat matot
      De so-called Sudd Institute/local think tank is not mindful of historical facts. Why don’t you revisit de history of 1991 and Bor massacre orchestrated by Dr Hopeless Riek who imitates renowned PhD holders like Dr John Garang de Mabior? Why did Nasir Faction fail to negotiate peace with Khartoum and bring about CPA of 2005?

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      • 6 August 10:59, by LabotoNyom KobiYe

        If the very SPLM/A headed by Dr John Garang were to surrender to Khartoum in 1991 n signed Khartoum Oil Agreement, KOA of 1997 as Dr Hopeless Riek did before returning to Dr Jogn Garand in 2002, in which country would we be talking as first class citizens today dat Riek is now struggling to hijack SPLM/A who he abandoned but still liberated him in broad day light?

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        • 6 August 11:00, by LabotoNyom KobiYe

          The real issue of South Sudan is not political or democratic reforms dat Dr Hopeless Riek is trying to impose upon South Sudanese on de basis of federalism, but lack of nationalism, repeated betrayal n use of violence to achieve political/military power to lead regardless of record, constant knocks on Khartoum’s door for food n logistical support.

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          • 6 August 11:02, by LabotoNyom KobiYe

            President Salva Kiir Mayardit is democratically elected; he never returned from Khartoum in 2002 to be forgiven and/or later appointed Vice President in 2005 like Dr. Hopeless Riek who believes dat he has PhD n has every right to rule at any cost if what he describes as “his turn” is denied. Is de right of Dr Hopeless Riek is recognizable only in South Sudan but not in Khartoum/KOA-1997?

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            • 6 August 11:02, by LabotoNyom KobiYe

              Why the so-called illiterate “white army” was not mobilized against Jayliin in Shendi or Khartoum when Omer Hassan Al-Bashir disposed of KOA-1997 shortly after inking it? Why does Dr Hopeless believe dat it’s harder to use force/violence against SAF to achieve power in Khartoum than using it against SPLA to rule in Juba/South Sudan? Is it bcoz Sudan has no jungle for conducting rebellion?

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              • 6 August 11:03, by LabotoNyom KobiYe

                South Sudan has enough jungle to hide. The forces of Dr Hopeless Riek can easily locate where SPLA forces are but their commanders often fail to win battles and resort to taking refuge to air-conditioned Hotels in Addis overlooking the venue of peace talks and to later join Government delegation from Juba only to keep changing their position, demands or setting preconditions.

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                • 6 August 11:04, by LabotoNyom KobiYe

                  Who is Dr Hopeless Riek fooling in de ongoing peace talks, government delegation, IGAD or international community dat he still has de gut to get everything his way? No way. That’s why I said before dat “Let’s go to Addis to have some fun and watch the patronizing smile and presidential look of Dr Hopeless”.

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                  • 6 August 11:15, by LabotoNyom KobiYe

                    We r waiting for those coming from the Diaspora to join his rebellion in de front lines so dat we have a good dance until the followers of Dr Hopeless give up and come to their senses to be forgiven for de sake of peace. Otherwise, we r ready for a protracted war. There r many peaceful Nuer PhD holders who can run and democratically get elected to lead the country, but not Dr Hopeless Riek.

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  • 6 August 20:40, by Kerem

    If it is true that Riek is not in full control of his army, then he is not being loved by his people otherwise they should have listened to his commands. Nuers are born rebels and will never settle whatever the case, they will remain rebels

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