Home | Comment & Analysis    Thursday 20 March 2014

Third round of South Sudan’s negotiation

separation
increase
decrease
separation
separation

By Steve Paterno

March 19, 2014 - The third round of South Sudanese peace talks in Addis Ababa is scheduled to resume on March 20th. The second round ended up in deadlock without any progress or signing of any provision.

These next round of negotiations are going to pretty much be determined by the passed unfolding events leading to these talks. The mediation under the regional bloc, Inter-Governmental Authority on Development or IGAD are disparately trying to cut a deal on the three months old conflict. However, IGAD is facing a daunting task ahead. The warring parties are far apart on issues. The involvement of Western powers as well as other regional powers who are more or less acting like big brothers such as South Africa, which are putting much pressure on IGAD is worrisome to say the least. Bearing to pressure, IGAD mediators are feeling that their noble efforts are being challenged and their mantra of ’African problems can be solved by Africans’ are fast dissipating. Hence, they may likely opt for expediency for political motives as oppose to finding concrete solutions to the problems.

Worst yet, the squabble among IGAD members is actually the regional bloc’s achilles’ heels. At the heart of dispute is the deployment of Ugandan troops, known as UPDF, in South Sudan to stabilize the country. The swift and timely deployment of UPDF seems to have beaten the other IGAD members to the punch.

To resolve this problem, IGAD members instead insisted on a proposal of a deployment of regional peace keeping force and calls for withdrawal of UPDF. Though both South Sudan and Ugandan governments welcome the proposal, both governments can still easily go around and circumvent the proposal, which will still keep UPDF in the country to continue with its current mission.

First, base on IGAD’s proposal, the withdrawal of UPDF depends on the deployment of the regional peace keeping force. This means, the UPDF are there to stay until those regional forces arrive. Secondly, Uganda being an IGAD member, the UPDF can simply assume a role of that regional contingent, even by default. Thirdly, South Sudan and Uganda had already a bilateral and regional agreements on troops deployment and as sovereign entities, they could enter into any such agreements at any time and point they feel necessary without the necessary approval of anyone.

Going into these negotiations, the government of South Sudan feels more empowered than ever before. In the last phase of talks, the government already dismissed a multi-track negotiations that involve any other party than the armed opposition. This actually encourages the government as it continues to defeat the armed groups on the ground and militarily winning battles.

Nonetheless, the recent growing confrontation between the government and UN operation in the country plus deteriorating diplomatic relationship with Western countries remain the challenge for government to overcome.

As for the opposing armed groups, with the recent series of loses of key places, including Malakal, it looks like they are going for a nuclear option, targeting and destroying oilfields. Much remain to be observed in the talks.

Steve Paterno is the author of The Rev. Fr. Saturnino Lohure, A Romain Catholic Priest Turned Rebel. He can be reached at stevepaterno@yahoo.com



The views expressed in the 'Comment and Analysis' section are solely the opinions of the writers. The veracity of any claims made are the responsibility of the author not Sudan Tribune.

If you want to submit an opinion piece or an analysis please email it to comment@sudantribune.com

Sudan Tribune reserves the right to edit articles before publication. Please include your full name, relevant personal information and political affiliations.
Comments on the Sudan Tribune website must abide by the following rules. Contravention of these rules will lead to the user losing their Sudan Tribune account with immediate effect.

- No inciting violence
- No inappropriate or offensive language
- No racism, tribalism or sectarianism
- No inappropriate or derogatory remarks
- No deviation from the topic of the article
- No advertising, spamming or links
- No incomprehensible comments

Due to the unprecedented amount of racist and offensive language on the site, Sudan Tribune tries to vet all comments on the site.

There is now also a limit of 400 words per comment. If you want to express yourself in more detail than this allows, please e-mail your comment as an article to comment@sudantribune.com

Kind regards,

The Sudan Tribune editorial team.
  • 20 March 15:02, by Lotodo Awino Odug

    The only agenda to be address in the next round of talks will be clean surrender modalities, so as Tabun Deng will have to takeover as new parliamentary watchdog.

    repondre message

Comment on this article


 
 

The following ads are provided by Google. SudanTribune has no authority on it.


Sudan Tribune

Promote your Page too

Latest Comments & Analysis


South Sudan: Justice remains elusive, one year on 2014-12-17 04:17:40 By Elizabeth Deng December 16 2014 - A year after the outbreak of violence in Juba last December, hopes of accountability for abuses linked to the conflict remain distant. Despite repeated calls (...)

President Salva Kiir has betrayed his people and the nation 2014-12-17 04:15:00 By James Gatdet Dak December 15, 2014 - After many painful decades of destructive war of liberation against successive oppressive regimes in Khartoum, people of South Sudan gained their hard won (...)

Sudan protects terrorists 2014-12-15 04:29:57 By Kimberly Hollingsworth* December 15, 2014 - Sudan used to be the heart of Africa; now, Sudan is the heart of international terrorist organizations. Sudan is the hub for training extremists. (...)


MORE








Latest Press Releases


Norway grants US $1.9 million for humanitarian needs in Darfur 2014-12-16 06:47:08 The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) - KHARTOUM Norway helps provide nutritious food to malnourished families in Sudan 14 December 2014 KHARTOUM – The United Nations World Food Programme (...)

Darfur Association "disheartened" by ICC decision to not meet them 2014-12-14 05:50:13 12 December 2014 RE: DPANY Requests/Direction of the OTP in the Situation of Darfur Dear Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda, We, the Darfur People's Association of New York, are disheartened by your (...)

REDRESS calls for the immediate release of Sudan’s distinguished human rights lawyer 2014-12-10 09:02:53 December 9, 2014 ­­ — REDRESS, and many other individuals and organisations around the world, are extremely concerned by the continuing secret detention of Dr. Amin Mekki Medani. On Saturday, 4 (...)


MORE

Copyright © 2003-2014 SudanTribune - All rights reserved.