Home | Comment & Analysis    Thursday 20 March 2014

Third round of South Sudan’s negotiation

separation
increase
decrease
separation
separation

By Steve Paterno

March 19, 2014 - The third round of South Sudanese peace talks in Addis Ababa is scheduled to resume on March 20th. The second round ended up in deadlock without any progress or signing of any provision.

These next round of negotiations are going to pretty much be determined by the passed unfolding events leading to these talks. The mediation under the regional bloc, Inter-Governmental Authority on Development or IGAD are disparately trying to cut a deal on the three months old conflict. However, IGAD is facing a daunting task ahead. The warring parties are far apart on issues. The involvement of Western powers as well as other regional powers who are more or less acting like big brothers such as South Africa, which are putting much pressure on IGAD is worrisome to say the least. Bearing to pressure, IGAD mediators are feeling that their noble efforts are being challenged and their mantra of ’African problems can be solved by Africans’ are fast dissipating. Hence, they may likely opt for expediency for political motives as oppose to finding concrete solutions to the problems.

Worst yet, the squabble among IGAD members is actually the regional bloc’s achilles’ heels. At the heart of dispute is the deployment of Ugandan troops, known as UPDF, in South Sudan to stabilize the country. The swift and timely deployment of UPDF seems to have beaten the other IGAD members to the punch.

To resolve this problem, IGAD members instead insisted on a proposal of a deployment of regional peace keeping force and calls for withdrawal of UPDF. Though both South Sudan and Ugandan governments welcome the proposal, both governments can still easily go around and circumvent the proposal, which will still keep UPDF in the country to continue with its current mission.

First, base on IGAD’s proposal, the withdrawal of UPDF depends on the deployment of the regional peace keeping force. This means, the UPDF are there to stay until those regional forces arrive. Secondly, Uganda being an IGAD member, the UPDF can simply assume a role of that regional contingent, even by default. Thirdly, South Sudan and Uganda had already a bilateral and regional agreements on troops deployment and as sovereign entities, they could enter into any such agreements at any time and point they feel necessary without the necessary approval of anyone.

Going into these negotiations, the government of South Sudan feels more empowered than ever before. In the last phase of talks, the government already dismissed a multi-track negotiations that involve any other party than the armed opposition. This actually encourages the government as it continues to defeat the armed groups on the ground and militarily winning battles.

Nonetheless, the recent growing confrontation between the government and UN operation in the country plus deteriorating diplomatic relationship with Western countries remain the challenge for government to overcome.

As for the opposing armed groups, with the recent series of loses of key places, including Malakal, it looks like they are going for a nuclear option, targeting and destroying oilfields. Much remain to be observed in the talks.

Steve Paterno is the author of The Rev. Fr. Saturnino Lohure, A Romain Catholic Priest Turned Rebel. He can be reached at stevepaterno@yahoo.com



The views expressed in the 'Comment and Analysis' section are solely the opinions of the writers. The veracity of any claims made are the responsibility of the author not Sudan Tribune.

If you want to submit an opinion piece or an analysis please email it to comment@sudantribune.com

Sudan Tribune reserves the right to edit articles before publication. Please include your full name, relevant personal information and political affiliations.
Comments on the Sudan Tribune website must abide by the following rules. Contravention of these rules will lead to the user losing their Sudan Tribune account with immediate effect.

- No inciting violence
- No inappropriate or offensive language
- No racism, tribalism or sectarianism
- No inappropriate or derogatory remarks
- No deviation from the topic of the article
- No advertising, spamming or links
- No incomprehensible comments

Due to the unprecedented amount of racist and offensive language on the site, Sudan Tribune tries to vet all comments on the site.

There is now also a limit of 400 words per comment. If you want to express yourself in more detail than this allows, please e-mail your comment as an article to comment@sudantribune.com

Kind regards,

The Sudan Tribune editorial team.
  • 20 March 15:02, by Lotodo Awino Odug

    The only agenda to be address in the next round of talks will be clean surrender modalities, so as Tabun Deng will have to takeover as new parliamentary watchdog.

    repondre message

Comment on this article


 
 

The following ads are provided by Google. SudanTribune has no authority on it.


Sudan Tribune

Promote your Page too

Latest Comments & Analysis


Undermining South Sudanese expertise’s is ironical! 2014-09-19 10:15:59 By Peter Gai Manyuon September 18, 2014 - The recent order from the Ministry of Labor and Public Service in the Republic of South Sudan that was issued on 16th of September 2014 is absolute (...)

Sudan - Colliding interests 2014-09-16 10:04:11 By Mohamed Elshabik September 15, 2014 - Sudan seems to be unconcerned by the current political crisis in the region. Amid a prognosis of full-scale war in South Sudan, unrest in Egypt, chaos in (...)

A pastoral appeal to South Sudanese to reconcile 2014-09-16 09:19:03 By Rev. Bernard Oliya Suwa, PhD September 15, 2014 - The 15th of December 2013 is a date that we South Sudanese are not going to forget any time soon – and so we shouldn't! After the violence (...)


MORE








Latest Press Releases


Sudan Democracy First Group: Art as resistance – art as resilience 2014-09-09 12:34:15 Sudan Democracy First Group Art as Resistance – Art as Resilience September 8, 2014 - To mark the third anniversary of the resumption of civil war in Blue Nile and Nuba Mountains/South Kordofan, (...)

Sudan: Those behind unlawful killings and torture of protesters must be brought to justice 2014-09-03 13:13:43 Amnesty International Sudan: Those behind unlawful killings and torture of protesters must be brought to justice The brutal suppression of protest in Sudan must end, and members of the security (...)

National Dialogue in Sudan: Past experiences and current challenges 2014-08-27 06:18:22 Sudan Democracy First Group (SDFG) Since independence, Sudan has undergone a number of national peace agreements, some of which were observed and honored for short periods, others which were (...)


MORE

Copyright © 2003-2014 SudanTribune - All rights reserved.