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Analysis of South Sudan’s ceasefire and its implementation

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By Peter Gai Manyuon

January 25, 2014 - Most of the people globally are not yet satisfied with the issue of the political detainees releasing in South Sudan and the ceasefire implementation as well. Other are doubting President Kiir and his cabinets whether they will allow for the releasing of the senior members of the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM/A) in opposition who are in detention due to the agenda which the Juba government is advocating for (Coup) and most people globally have disregarded as the baseless that can be pronounce.

More interestingly, most of Kiir cabinets are not please up to now because what they term as the coup was not recognized internationally and regionally as well, therefore they are trying for many ways but very difficult. However, when the ceasefire was signed on the 23th of January 2014 in Addiss-Ababa Ethiopians Capital where Inter-governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) gave the name as Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM/A) in opposition was an indication of nullifying Juba claims about what they have not research for very well.

Personal overview about South Sudan conflicts

Sometimes, I get confused about the issue of the Republic of South Sudan, because every day, every year there is death which is caused by human being not God cause. I always ask myself, is this the South Sudan, we fought for in so many years with Khartoum Government? I always ask myself of what might be the solution for these very crises that are happening in the newest state? Sometimes my colleagues always advice me, that the South Sudan issue need good monitoring and evaluation (M&E) to be put in place by South Sudanese themselves not any one.

More interestingly, the question, might come who will make Monitoring and Evaluation? The answer is very simple, it is the citizen of South Sudan to see critical or advocate for the democratization processes, promoting rule of law and human rights in south Sudan, advocating for gender equality and promotion of the freedom of expression which is very important in every country. Furthermore, the question might come, who can advocate since there is no respect for the rule of law and human in South Sudan?

Mind you, if I was among the politicians, I would have use political instruments like demonstrations, public rallies to weaken the system in the Republic of South Sudan, incase government try to kill the citizen, the International community should have already call for the stepping down of the President of the Republic of South Sudan and that is why, Museveni of Uganda might get confuse on how, he should help his newest friend Kiir Mayardit. However, it is bygone now, what need to be done in the Republic of South Sudan by whatever the system that is place are the following;

First of all, there is need of inclusiveness in all the political ,social and economic issues of the South Sudan, citizen need to get involve in mining sector, oil sector to promote transparency and accountability within the Community in the newest nation, let the employment opportunity be done on the merit not who you know like what is happening now, where those who are working in the government offices are people whose their minds lack creativity, semi-literate and illiterate that were brought from villages and just sitting in the public offices dosing ,taking black tea frequently in a day. How can government of Kiir function when most of his workers are illiterate? That is why he had been accused by the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM/A) in opposition of the corruption, dictatorial tendencies, nepotism, tribalism, no respect for the rule of law and human rights in the system. The question is, can we blame the SPLM in opposition or President Kiir over the serious crisis that had displaced thousands of the South

Sudanese from their places in South Sudan?

Secondly, sometimes this man by the name Dr Machar, he is sometimes very good in projecting some things, early last year 2013, he came up with the National Peace Initiative that captured people wills and aspirations up to date. And the objective of him coming up with that was to restore love, and clean out all the hatred, tribalism that are becoming the chronic disease in South Sudan among the people, but some politicians when in and begin manipulating the mind of Mayardit, where they went in and put in a lots of ill advices to Kiir that have lead to the destabilization of the entire country where many International community evacuated their staff and citizen who had been working in the Republic of South Sudan. There is need for the freedom of expression and association in south Sudan, if people are free morally, they can help to point out the advantages and disadvantages of the ruling government. There is no government globally who cannot be criticize accept this very government of South Sudan that had been surrounded by the people who lack faith and trust ship in them.

Will there be the implementation of the ceasefire?

No one can say, ceasefire will be recognize and respect by the two groups of the SPLM because unless otherwise the eleven political detainees will be release before the 7th of February 2014 as stipulated in the agreement in Addiss-ababa Ethiopians Capital. Secondly, if the Uganda troops withdraw from South Sudan territory, there might be peace and trust in the peace process otherwise things might be upside down.

How will the two groups of SPLM come to a roundtable with each other?

What I know releasing people like Pagan Amum, Deng Alor, Gier Chuong, Kosti Manube, Lul Gatkuoth, John Luk, Dr Chirrillo Iteng, Madut Biar, Dr Majak Agot, Weyai Deng and Engineer Chol Toang Mayay will increase the ongoing crisis, because the people who have been fighting for President Kiir were Nuer who were responding purposely to the killing of their sons and daughters by Kiir loyalists. The question is, will these guys mobilize their supporters? And if they advocate for the down full of the Mayardit, will they fail or succeed? Based on what I know most of the guys who are in the detention are very influential in their communities, and they have money as well, that they might use to bring down Kiir government in Juba. What am viewing, if eleven of them are out, that is the end of Mayardit government and his loyalists and if Kiir will refused to release them, International Community and regional body known by the name IGAD will send in troops to fight Kiir government in South Sudan.

The government of Kiir might be in a very big problem because someone like Pagan Amum is a communist, and he is talkative he might defeat the like of those of Makuei Lueth, Marial Benjamin and the rests. People are in the fear that he might mobilize internationally, regionally and within South Sudan territory. Looking at someone like Dr Majak Agot that is seen as elder within greater Bor, will also mobilize his people. More so looking at someone like Lul Gatkuoth who had been a diplomat representing South Sudanese in United Nation , will also create fear because his legacy will make some of the International community to recognized their voices and influences within the South Sudanese politics. I cannot talk of Deng Alor because most of the people of Abyei do not appreciate President Kiir since his government did not recognize the peaceful referendum of the people of Abyei that was carried out last year in October. The trust of the people of Abyei with Kiir is less than 1% practically.

Many people are very confused about how will these very two split groups of Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) come to a roundtable again and begin talking about Democratization process within the party. I hope I will agree on the quotation that says “everything had got the beginning and ending” people don’t believe that the two groups could come to the one agreement of signing the hostility in Addissababa Ethiopians Capital on 23th of January 2014. Already they have different interests and thinking capacity about who should be the SPLM party Chairperson who will contest for the Presidency using the ticket. There might still be wrangles and delay of the convention of the party in South Sudan due to because most of the people will say there had been crisis in South Sudan and therefore, we should wait for the time to get some cash from the oil to organize for the party convention.

Recommendations

Government of the Republic of South Sudan should arrest all the criminals who committed atrocities in Juba particularly those massacre the Nuer people and lead to the rebellion of Gen Peter Gatdet in Jonglei and other Generals in South Sudan, because if nothing is taken serious about the soldiers that killed civilians innocently in juba, will lead to the expansion of the conflict which most of the South Sudanese do not wish for that.
International Community should immediately publish how Nuer were massacre in Juba from the 16th,17th and 18th of December 2013, because releasing of the video and the text will give the world indication of the decision to take against the government of the Republic of South Sudan under President Kiir Mayardit. Because looking and contextualizing the all scenario, justified for the immediate call for the International Criminal Court (ICC) to give indictment to the culprits within Mayardit loyalists in Juba.
International Community with the combination of the South Sudanese citizen should advocate for the reforms within the party and the organization of the coming elections that will be conduct in 2015, because right now the country is at the stage of disorganization, collapsing, constitutional crisis, radical corruption and primitive politics that have lead to the killing of Nuer people base on the ethnicity which is locally, internationally and regionally unacceptable to be tolerated.

Inter-governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) should try their level base to call for the withdraw of the Uganda People Defense Forces (UPDF) because President Museveni participation in South Sudan crisis is an indication of weakness from the IGAD body, because Uganda is part of the group, how come they allow it first to killed, raped,Nuer ladies in South Sudan, some of the soldiers from Uganda are HIV/AIDS positive. Therefore, there is need to indict President Museveni as well for the crimes against Humanity unless otherwise world is not doing the needful as the people well-being.

Conclusion

South Sudan is not belong to any tribe in South Sudan but rather it belongs to all the sixty four (64) tribes, no any tribe from the 64 to advocate for the elimination of the other tribe in the South Sudan territory unless otherwise someone with psychological disorder mentally, can advocate for that like what happen last year when some people were targeted and others were moving freely.

The author is the Independent Journalist and a writer who had written extensively as columnist on the issues of Democratization and Human Rights in South Sudan. You can contact him though: southsudanjournalist@gmail.com.



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  • 26 January 04:46, by Akol Liai Mager

    Both Analysis and recommendations made sense to me. The question of release or no release of the political detainees is just a scenario of "hot liquids in the mouth that the throat cannot endure the passing nor the person can bear the embarrassment of pouring out these hot liquids" in front of others. Keep up the good work Mr Gai.

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    • 26 January 05:41, by Tutbol

      Peter Gai Manyuon,
      It is better the guys like your kinds stop preaching others their lames (cowards) ideas to others. Bor North has not been destroyed by the Nuers & still you speak of what happened on the Dec 15 2013? How did Nuers bypassed Bor North & came to Bor south. I am not saying the Bor North are all cowards, but many Bor North polickings----

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      • 26 January 05:58, by Tutbol

        with their poor coward-ness & constant slick treachery have made the Nuers cow-boys in our state of Jonglei. When John Garang was a leader, everyone, littles or bigs, boys or girls, men or women & even our cows stood with Dr. Garang for what he stood for. we lost lot of our peoples! The game the North played on the *South Bor is noted*

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  • 27 January 10:03, by Tata

    This recent conflict in SS is very emotional. At one hand you may not be a supporter of Kiir’s govt for long. AT the other you feel sorry for Riek’s evil behavior. Riek should’ve just resigned and form his party like Lam Akol. But to shoot a gun then run to bush and continue killing South Sudanese is the most ugliest evil act. how can somebody sympathized with Riek after he kills 1000s innocents?

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  • 27 January 10:27, by Apeny

    Mr. Gai,
    I appreciate your point when you call for those who murdered Nuer civilians in Juba to be brought to book and account for their heinous crimes. But why’re u silence about executions of Dinka civilians in Bentiu, Bor, Akobo and Malakal by ruthless Nuer? Does your call for justice has exemption or exception? If that is the case, than u are primitive no. one, not Pres Kiir as you claims.

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  • 27 January 22:08, by Marco Bul

    Nuer killed civilians in Bor,Akobo,Malakal and Bentiu bcoz some stupid guys killed their civilians in Juba.
    @Tut Ngøth.Why didn’t you prevent Nuer from reaching Bortown if you were brave?? Twic & Dukeen have been your shield since 1993.Panyagoor was defended properly.Where were you then?

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