Home | Comment & Analysis    Friday 16 November 2012

Power struggle in Khartoum

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By David L. Phillips and Ahmed Hussain Adam

November 16, 2012 — Sudan is on the brink. Its military has suffered humiliating defeat and dishonor. The economy is in free-fall. Islamist factions are breaking ranks with the regime. President Omar al-Bashir’s allies can see the writing on the wall. Khartoum has become a snake-pit, with everyone trying to promote their power and privilege in the event of Bashir’s demise.

Bashir is seeking to consolidate control by embracing Islamists and Shariah law. The so-called “Islamic Movement Conference” will convene later this month to choose a new Secretary General of the Islamic Movement for Sudan. Nothing new will come from the Conference, even though Islamist leaders from around the world may join. The Movement is just a symbolic body, with no real political authority or integrity.

More and more of Bashir’s backers are anticipating Bashir’s demise. Disaffected security officers are coalescing around Nafie Ali Nafie, Bashir’s Assistant and Deputy Chairman of the National Congress Party (NCP). Nafie led the Mukhabarat, Bashir’s feared military intelligence. His hands are bloody with crimes committed during the ethnic cleansing of Darfur, South Sudan and South Kordofan. Nafie is brazenly ambitious. He wants power to ensure impunity for his crimes.

Ali Osman Taha, the First Vice President, is no better. His clique, which includes Islamist cells and some opportunists from his Shaygia tribe, is pragmatic and ruthless. While Taha is closely tied to Bashir, he is working behind the scenes reaching out to Islamist groups within the regime. His goal is to secure the mantle of NCP leadership.

NCP youth groups are discontent with the country’s direction, including its corrosive corruption. They are also disaffected with Bashir for his stewardship of the economy and opposed to the Islamist Movement’s bold-faced bid for power. They do not, however, stand for real change. They are rank opportunists espousing internal reform as a way to power.

General Bakri Hassan Salih, the Presidency Minister, is one of the few people that Bashir really trusts and upon whom he relies. Bakri and General Abdul-Rahim Mohamed Hussein, the Defense Minister, are proven loyalists. Bakri is well-placed to take over from Bashir.

Bashir’s would-be successors — Bakri, Taha and Nafie — are cut from the same cloth. They will not hesitate to intensify aggression against dissidents within Sudan. They will also continue Sudan’s destructive collaboration with Iran and Hamas.

Now is the time for the Darfur, Blue Nile, and South Kordofan resistance movements to join with genuine democratic forces and seize the momentum of the Arab Spring. The resistance movements, disenfranchised since independence in 1956, have chosen armed struggle because no other course is open to them. Youth groups, women’s organizations, and some business leaders are other genuine change agents. They should unite with the resistance movements behind a national program for peaceful democratic change in Sudan.

The international community can also play a role. Bashir is rumored to have malignant throat cancer. Under indictment by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for genocide and crimes against humanity, Bashir should not be allowed to leave the country for medical care. It is shameful that Saudi Arabia has recently welcomed him at a five-star hospital in Riyadh.

Nor does Bashir deserve a safety net. The United States should dissuade its ally, Qatar, from trying to broker a power-sharing deal that would keep Bashir in power or replace him with a member of his criminal clique. Instead of sheltering war criminals, the international community should help execute current arrest warrants issued by the ICC including a warrant for General Hussein.

Sudanese are thirsting for information. Youth groups from Egypt and Tunisia have experience with new media technology as an effective tool for political mobilization. They should share their know-how with Sudan’s university-educated democracy advocates.

Sudan’s long national nightmare may soon be ending. Sudanese deserve dignity, democracy and development. So do their neighbors in South Sudan who have suffered from Khartoum’s aggression. Across the region, people are looking for change they can believe in. Nothing less than accountability for Bashir and his cronies will do.

(David L. Phillips is Director of the Program on Peace-building and Rights at Columbia University’s Institute for the Study of Human Rights. Ahmed Hussain Adam is a Visiting Scholar at Columbia University)



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  • 16 November 2012 21:19, by kitir

    The problem is that; writer of article was an ardent defender of the regime before breaking away and join rebellion ,the information appeared in the text are not new ,it circulated by daily press ,,, the worst news elbasher gona be replaced by same coteries seizing power for tow decade..

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  • 17 November 2012 00:58, by Akol Liai Mager

    Well, the authors of this article had narrowed the power struggle in Khartoum to NIF Fugitive leaders only, but failed to look at other scenarios beyond NIF’ Circle. Examples of these scenarios are: 1. General Abdelrahaman Sirelkhatim who is not 100% NIF loyalist. 2. Abdelrahaman Sadiq, a bridge that Fugitive Bashir had built betwn his NIF and its Mother, the UMMA Party of Sadiq.

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    • 17 November 2012 01:10, by Akol Liai Mager

      They have to watch the 3 human butchers of the NIF Not-Nafie Ali, Ali Taha and Gen. Bakry on their race to the top seat, but analysts must also watch how these killers may resort to other scenarios such as those mentioned above in case of deadlocks. History might repeat itself here that; Bashir goes to Kober’s Prison where he will be protected from ICC and Sadiq’s Son goes to Presidential Palace.

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  • 17 November 2012 01:47, by Akol Liai Mager

    A message to Mohamed Ali/Not-Sudani-Inta & the likes, but nothing to do with the article: Fugitive Haroun will be handed over to Hague by Nuba men/women for old & new crimes he is currently committing in Kadugli such as arresting 34 Nuba women accusing them of being Rocket launchers against Kadugli. Why NIS shouldn’t have looked at the colour of Ali Taha before shaving the Hair of Samia Handosa

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    • 17 November 2012 09:07, by Robot

      Akol,
      stick to your ethics of writing, you seem to be well informed. thank you.

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    • 17 November 2012 09:29, by sudani ana

      Akol
      This is your wishful thinking. My assessment is as follows: 1- no change in leadership because the majority of Sudanese love Bashir. 2- come summer the army in unity with all Sudanese patriots will crush all the rebels and clear our land of all traitors such as SPLMN, Darfur rebels and kill the three snakes Arman/Agar/Hilo. Our beloved country can then enjoy peace and prosperity.

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      • 17 November 2012 12:16, by mohamed mahgoub

        S.ana give me one reason to make u love a criminal like Albashir,4 get a bout the majority ! And before u start thinking about killing ( all triators & snakes) as u called the freedomfighters - beware u might end up with a throad cancer like ur master-u better help ur criminal islamists to manage their internal fighting over power right here in khartoum first,

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        • 17 November 2012 12:47, by Takpiny

          Akol
          Your observation is correct even Mohammed Ali and Jallabi have already knew that the political situation in Sudan is going worst that why they stopped telling nonsense here as they knew how things should be in the nearly future because Al-bashir is not coming back to the power again.

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          • 17 November 2012 12:49, by Takpiny

            Sudani ana and Northern Sudan both are sons of nomadic Misseriyra who knew nothing about Sudan politics, their parents are busy herding the cattle between Al-Muglad and Abyei all year around and their sons ( sadani ana & northern sudan) in asylum residency in the UK. So, they have no properties in Sudanese cities to worry about, that why they keep talking here.

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      • 18 November 2012 18:31, by Observer

        Sudani Ana,
        Please do not speak for me on here. If you want to make your claims please do so but make sure that everyone knows that these are yours only as I do not agree with you ( and know many millions more who don;t as well)

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      • 18 November 2012 23:58, by Akol Liai Mager

        Not Sudani-Inta, you are entitle to your rights to dream and ly as you wish. However, you need to be reminded about some facts here: 1. Your summer crush is doubtful unless a 1 year on for Fugitive Haroun war with women/children/elderly people of Nuba had no summer break at all. 2. The NIS call for return of Arab hair and blood from Darfurians did not come from nothing, but from the defeat...

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        • 19 November 2012 00:08, by Akol Liai Mager

          ..defeat suffered by NIF militiamen in the hands of Darfurian resistance armies. 3 How many summers passed since Darfurian resistance armies started their offensive against racist and criminal army of self proclaimed Arabs? 4 Nuba have now started a massive program for names change from Arab, back to Nuba/African names. 5 Criminal Bashir’s Friday of praying in Kauda is either forgotten or hard.

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