Home | News    Wednesday 10 October 2012

IMF revises Sudan’s 2012 GDP downwards

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October 9, 2012 (WASHINGTON) – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday revised its outlook for the Sudan economy showing a worst than projected economic contraction for 2012.

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International Monetary Fund’s Economic Counselor and Director of Research Department Olivier Blanchard holds a news briefing on the World Economic Outlook (WEO), at the Tokyo International Forum in Tokyo October 9, 2012 (IMF Photo)

In its semi-annual World Economic Outlook report released today the IMF also changed its classification of Sudan this year from an oil exporter to an oil importer to reflect the secession of the south last year which stripped the country from most of the oil reserves that existed when the country was united.

"Sudan, which remains in the Middle East and North Africa region, is now classified as a country with nonfuel primary products as the main source of export earnings," the IMF report reads.

The east African nation was almost totally reliant on oil exports which provided the bulk of its national income and foreign currency inflows fueling an economic boom that followed the end of a two-decade long civil war.

After years of a robust economic growth including double-digit figures, Sudan witnessed an economic contraction in 2011 as a direct result of the country’s breakup.

Last April, the IMF projected a -7.3% GDP contraction in Sudan for 2012 but today the world financial institution changed that number to -11.2%.

Next year the IMF estimates that the slide in Sudan’s GDP figures will come to a halt to be at a 0% rate. This contrasted with the -1.5% forecast made by the IMF in its first World Economic outlook report this year.

The report does not reflect the oil deal signed last month between north and south Sudan which sets the price by which the landlocked south could transport its oil using the north’s pipelines that extend to export terminals in Port Sudan.

South Sudan will pay between $9.10 and $11 a barrel to export its crude through the north. Juba will also pay a lump sum $3.08 billion to help Sudan overcome the budget deficit resulting from the south’s secession.

Sudan’s 2012 budget was drawn with the assumption of being paid $36 per barrel of oil exported by South Sudan. Juba however objected to the fee causing a dispute that resulted in suspending oil production altogether earlier this year.

It remains to be seen what the financial impact of the deal will be given the Sudan’s struggle with a widening fiscal gap, deteriorating exchange rate of the Sudanese pound against other currencies, hefty external debt and lack of access to international financing.

Last summer Sudan adopted the first phase of an austerity package which involved partially lifting food and fuel subsidies as well as cutting spending by reducing the size of the government. However, the Sudanese finance minister Ali Mahmood Abdel-Rasool recently suggested that more cuts will be needed to bring the fiscal situation under control.

Last month the International Monetary Fund (IMF) called on Sudan to initiate further reforms including reforming the civil service and continue the privatization program.

(ST)

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  • 10 October 2012 06:52, by hellonearth

    Am sure they will reject this as not true.

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  • 10 October 2012 07:42, by Jalaby

    No worries guys because we have a big milky cow right in our backyard, we will enjoy milking it every day early morning!
    Thriving 7 years that Ali Osman told us about are under way!

    Jalaby (Abo Jalabia)

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    • 10 October 2012 08:32, by Thorbanat

      To Jalaby,
      You are right to say you have the cow to milk in the backyard but you have forgotten that the cow will stop being milk after three years and half. You are myopic because this measures is a short run but what will happened after the expiry of the deal because the South by that time would have completed the Lamu corridor. You should be talking of long term economic sustainability.

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      • 10 October 2012 08:37, by Thorbanat

        Khartoum economy is doom because IMF have remove Sudan from the lists of oil exporting countries to Oil Importer and replaced South Sudan as an Oil Exporter and you gonna see the economy of South Sudan, it is going to be high because South Sudan is planning to diversify it economy because agric, gold and cement in Kapoeta, Nimule Fulla Fold Electrification, diamond in Luri and Yambio etc.

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        • 10 October 2012 09:30, by Jalaby

          Thorbanat,
          You’re dreaming man! I’ll tell you something very important that you need to know if you don’t know, the south economy existence will completely be dependent on Sudan economy, we will be sharing the oil south with the south until it dries out completely!
          Let me give you one real example that proves my assumption, let us take Canada & US economy as

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          • 10 October 2012 09:45, by Jalaby

            an example, although Canada economy is considered to be one of the most strongest economy in the world but their economy is completely US economy dependent,their economy without US simply means nothing,I remember few years ago US decided to temporarily stop importing cows and meat cows from Canada because they discovered one cow that they imported from Canada had mad cow disease

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            • 10 October 2012 09:52, by Jalaby

              that decision put the whole Canadian meats industry and business in jeopardy and about to collapse province Alberta economy completely since it also depends on meat business along with the oil production, Canadian government begged US to lift the sanction from their meats otherwise that will jeopardize their economy, another example is the dispute between US & Canada over

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              • 10 October 2012 09:59, by Jalaby

                the softwood lumber and US accused Canada of subsidizing their woods and then importing to US with cheap price that US woods can’t compete with them and decided to put sanction on Canadian woods and that decision about to destroy the woods industry in province British Columbia since their economy is completely depends on it till the NAFTA ruled the dispute in favor of Canada!

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                • 10 October 2012 10:04, by Jalaby

                  whether you like it or hate it, south economy and south state existence will be under Sudan mercy, the same way or may be more Canadian economy that always falls under US economy momentum, you can always hope, wish and dream but the reality in the ground could be something hard and difficult!

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                  • 10 October 2012 10:53, by Thorbanat

                    Jalaby,
                    Actually you are talking opposite I thought Sudan economy depend on South Sudan because if South Sudan decided to block it oil from passing via Sudan, the Sudan economy will suffer. You should get worry because South Sudan economic threats is real and I you will feel this when the South stopped it oil flows and furthermore, it will worsen if South Sudan possess Heglig.

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                    • 10 October 2012 12:14, by Jalaby

                      Thorbanat,
                      What? Sudan economy depends on south Sudan economy?! I thought you understand much better than those naive southerners who GoSS fools them every day and steals their money during the daylight but it seems I’m wrong!!
                      I’m saying "It’s a bull (Tour)" and you’re saying "Yes milk it"!!

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                  • 10 October 2012 11:53, by Wan Dhokyol

                    You are totally wrong Jallaby. How can you compare the economy of Canada that depend entirely on US with South Sudan which have a good numbers of neighboring friendly countries? Can you tell me the kind of sanctions that you can impose on South Sudan as US did to Canada? don’t think that reopening of oil was decided conditionally.

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                  • 10 October 2012 17:38, by James Maker Akok

                    Jalaba
                    Do not compare South Sudan and North Sudan with United Statate and Canada. South Sudan has Kenya Limu port and with all East Africa Countries. North Sudan Government put president Kiir in pocket and we going to remove him out and put a president that do the things South Sudanese people need to be done. Believe me we going to do it if there is no change.

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      • 10 October 2012 08:37, by Northern Sudanese

        Thorbanat
        in 3 and halve years time there will be more milk in our yard than the back yard because the backyard one is to halve in 7 years time :D. after 3 and halve years time Lamu doesn’t really matter

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    • 10 October 2012 14:20, by Loko El Pollo

      Iam not an economist,but the simple logic of supply and demand can explain it here.no consumers means drop in gdp.

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  • 10 October 2012 08:31, by Sudanese123

    I wouldn’t share your joy Jalaby! For me (as a north Sudanese) it is embarrassing to imagine how 35 million people (of them around 18 million are men) are so dependant on someone else’s wealth and have no other economic options other than embezzling them simply because their oil pipeline passes trough our land!

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    • 10 October 2012 08:40, by Northern Sudanese

      Sudanese123
      stop pretending to be sudanese, it is clear your a southerner pretending to be northern :D , we don’t depend on your resources, we depend on our infrastructure , when you shut oil down we didn’t say any objective, we just allowed you to kill yourself lol

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      • 10 October 2012 09:10, by Agutran

        Northern Sudanese, you see, that’s the problem, when one of your own is telling the truth, you tend to disowned them as the outsiders. Admit the truth and the truth will set you free!

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        • 10 October 2012 09:30, by Observer

          Agutran,
          Well said. N Sudanese, Mohammed Ali and the likes are so blinded by what their employers/masters aka as the NCP/Govt tell them that they cannon beleive that when a fellow North Sudanese (such as me) disagrees with them or tells the truth about how it really is for the ordinary Sudanese, then they always accuse us of being imposters,traitors and liars.

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      • 10 October 2012 09:33, by Aaban

        This is getting stupid now, why are you coward always think and believed that anybody who disagree with your ja’lain government is not sudanes, please stop that old ideology you are bringing shame to just citizen of this country, why do you like to says lies? Stop your cowardice act, Sudan I.s being rule by those who sold their soul to evil, what a government,

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  • 10 October 2012 08:35, by Northern Sudanese

    well, its better than what we expected. i expected something between 15%-20% because we stopped trading south this year, and heglig attack costed us nearly halve the total production for at least 3 months and all our new projects and buildings of this year like white nile sugar factory , africa’s second gold refinery ect are expected to reach full capacity in 2 years time.

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    • 10 October 2012 09:28, by Aaban

      This is getting stupid now, why are you coward always think and believed that anybody who disagree with your ja’lain government is not sudanes, please stop that old ideology you are bringing shame to just citizen of this country, why do you like to says lies? Stop your cowardice act, Sudan I.s being rule by those who sold their soul to evil, what a government,

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      • 10 October 2012 09:42, by Northern Sudanese

        Aaban
        stop the nonsense, this evil government is feeding your starving people now, respect it!

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        • 10 October 2012 09:56, by Aaban

          You racist coward, there is no doubt that you feed on other people blood, but you maybe right because you are fooling some of our people for food, but do you know where that food come from?
          Seem like you are just writing with less knowledge about Sudan?
          Deep down in your heart you know how we can defeat you in less than a day if you are not fooling other with food, because they don’t know where,

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          • 10 October 2012 10:13, by Aaban

            The food is come from,
            The evil evil power government is feeding those they find supporting them as their partner in crimes,
            Bad for the citizen but good for the power of greed,
            If we united and join hands, it can take us few days to get rid of power of evil in the country, you & I know it better that we know how to fight than you coward ja’lain criminal, just because of some power lover,

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      • 10 October 2012 10:06, by master

        there is no room for tribalism in sudan
        you can find it in south sudan

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        • 10 October 2012 10:15, by Hardball

          Ha, that’s very funny, tribalism is switching role and Sudan is the next beneficiary of it for the next decade! South Sudan dealt with it for the last two decades and role is getting reverse now and the switch is on.

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        • 10 October 2012 10:19, by Aaban

          The words represent it speaker, only God who known what you said you mr coward master, and there is no supires from a coward name like yours to say something positive just acting the old way and believed of those who sold their soul to evil, racist is your motto and nobody dare to tell you that you are wrong,
          The master name itself is an evil name something that is killing us right know, you are

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          • 10 October 2012 10:26, by Aaban

            Just a silly coward who hid under the shadow of racist evil to exposes your really identity,
            Self de_ termination must be try maybe it will bring peace because I believed and Allah believed that nobody should live under the shadow of darkness,
            The coward like ja’lain love the power of doom and they enjoy the death of the people who protact them for long time, your words are of ja’lain gang

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  • 10 October 2012 21:53, by ViVa Sudan

    No worries guys because we have a big milky cow right in our backyard " Good comment by ma brother Jalaby but ask idiots southners who digged the oil now they are fighting for & killing each other we Sudanese so pay to get live or die with ur own oil money Dinak coward runners .. lawless thieves

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