Home | News    Tuesday 4 September 2012

Wikileaks: Sudanese launchpad for Egyptian attack on Ethiopian dam

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By Toby Collins

September 3, 2012 (LONDON) – Egyptian authorities fearful of a monopoly on Nile waters received agreement from Khartoum to build an airbase in Sudan, to launch attacks on Ethiopian damming facilities, claims the anonymous media outlet; Wikileaks.

Wikileaks has leaked files allegedly from the Texas-based global intelligence company, Stratfor, which quote an anonymous “high-level Egyptian source,” claiming the Egyptian ambassador to Lebanon said in 2010 his nation would do anything to prevent the secession of South Sudan because of the political implications it will have for Egypt’s access to the Nile.

The Nile is vital in providing fresh water to the people and agricultural projects of Egypt. Also in the Nile Basin and reliant on its waters are Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi.

As Egypt is at the end of the river it is in a particularly politically precarious situation.

Ethiopia’s massive hydroelectric damming projects have sent shockwaves throughout the region, highlighting the faults in previously-signed treaties on Nile water-sharing.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will be Africa’s largest hydroelectric facility and will be built 40km upstream from Sudan on the Blue Nile River.

Ethiopia has denied Egypt’s requests to inspect the dam, unless it relinquishes its colonial era veto on water allocation. Although, according the source, Ethiopia has agreed not to use the reservoir waters for irrigation, there are concerns about the extent of water loss due to evaporation from the dam’s reservoir.

According to Wikileaks, a 2010 internal email records Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir’s agreement to host an Egyptian airbase in Kursi in the west of Sudan’s Darfur region. This base would be used to launch an Egyptian assault on the Ethiopian dam, if diplomatic efforts fail.

The anonymous source cites the “useful case-study” of Egypt’s 1976 sabotage of another Ethiopia damming project.

However, the viability of joint Sudanese-Egyptian military operations have been brought into question in light of their fractious relationship.

According to Wikileaks, the Stratfor source claimed that “if it comes to a crisis, we will send a jet to bomb the dam and come back in one day, simple as that. Or we can send our special forces in to block/sabotage the dam.”

Although they agree upon the Nile Basin Treaty, the contested Halayeb Triangle, in 2010, to Bashir accusing Egypt of occupying Sudanese territory.

The immediacy and extent of the Ethiopian threat to Egyptian freshwater access is questionable but its domestic political usefulness for the now ousted Mubarak regime is not.

The continued political application of the Ethiopian threat is, allegedly, now being exerted on the incumbent government by the Muslim Brotherhood.

On 26 August Egypt denied allegations that the new government is under pressure to persuade key regional investor, China, to not back such Nile development programmes.

The UN estimates that by 2050 the world’s population will have increased by 3.5 billion, with the majority of the growth in developing countries where water stress is already in key issue, potentially making access to freshwater more incendiary than access to fossil fuels in the coming decades.

Although Egypt was a perennial economic underachiever during the Mubarak regime’s years of mismanagement, it has the potential to be a regional powerhouse. This makes its need to secure future access to resources all the more important and potentially domineering.

(ST)

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  • 4 September 2012 07:16, by Jalaby

    This Wikileaks report really funny and so ridiculous! building military airport in Darfour for Egyptian warplanes to attack Ethiopian dam?! what?! Ethiopian dam has moved to Chad or what?!
    Ethiopia never and will never ever be our strategic enemy, same like Chad, we have blood relationship with Chad and Sudanese and Chadian tribes are so overlapped and sometimes very hard to

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    • 4 September 2012 07:30, by Jalaby

      tell who is Sudanese or who is Chadian, Chadian president, Idris Debi himself is from Zagwa tribe that live in both country Sudan & Chad and he started from Al-Fashir with great help from his Zagwa tribe in Sudan and invaded N’Djamena and occupied it in 1990,the same story with Chadian rebel leader Mr. Mohamed Nour who invaded N’Djamena in 2008 starting from Darfour supported

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      • 4 September 2012 07:40, by Jalaby

        by his Tama tribe that live in both Sudan & Chad, Since Chad got its independent from France in 1960 and with no exception, all government change in N’Djamena were done from Darfour, hence Sudan is the key for opening the presidential door palace in N’Djamena and Idris Debi knows it very well that’s why he decided to stay away from fire and expelled out JEM from Chad!

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        • 4 September 2012 07:52, by Akol Liai Mager

          Abu-Tagiya, please come back to the point. The leaked news are not about who go to Chad Palace and by what means, but about NIF’evil alliance with Egypt and Libya against Ethiopia. NIF Fugitive leader had actually agreed for Egyptian Airbase in Jibet and Sinnar with conditions that the bases and its equipments will also be used against SPLA-N

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        • 4 September 2012 08:00, by Jalaby

          LOL, this Wikileaks report is so funny, it was well known that former Egyptian president Mubarak was the man of Israel and America in the region and will never ever dare to attack a country that has close relationship with both countries without having the permission from them!
          Many of you may not know that the proposed Ethiopian biggest dam "Millennium Dam" is now on hold

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          • 4 September 2012 08:12, by Jalaby

            after the world bank and other financial institutions declined to finance the project after Egypt showed strong resistance to this dam and that will directly affect its national security!
            According to UN international law,a river that runs through more than one country is shared by all of them and upstream country has no right to build any dam that negatively impact others!

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            • 4 September 2012 08:23, by Observer

              Jalaby,
              Lots of the Wikleaks are funny but you believed them when you felt that they showed up other countries in bad light or showed Sudan up in good light
              You can’t have it both ways.. you used to think that Wikileaks was the best thing around.. but now because they show our Govt as being ridiculous you don;t believe them any more??
              Who ie more funny- Wikileaks or you??

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              • 4 September 2012 22:40, by mohammed ali

                Observer, certainly , you are the funny."Our" country which you never defend even under such a" foolish " attack!This dirty propoganda is not directed to NCP, it will be directed to all of us " assuming that you are one of us" .Millitary air base in Darfur to attack Ethiopia!Funny! That is foolish! Only brain washedmorons will believe this!South Egypt is mor close to Ethiopia than Darfur?>>>con

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                • 4 September 2012 22:49, by mohammed ali

                  Con:Any ordinary Sudanese will ask a simple question: why is this propoganda, before blaming Jalabi or anyother one! Ceratinly there one wikileakes which is probaby true.It is operating outside US.The auother is on the run because they are all after him.He has to take refugee in a latin American Embassy in London.The other one is operating from Texas inside the US, because it is not "leaking"..con

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                  • 4 September 2012 22:57, by mohammed ali

                    Con: because it is not " leaking " anything! It is simply dissiminating venemous propoganda and to mask the real " leaks" Stop pretending to be Sudanese, you are a bad acter & pretender!

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                    • 5 September 2012 05:25, by Observer

                      M Ali
                      That is your usual attack on anyone who disagrees with you or doesn;t stand up for our country.
                      I am as Sudanese as you are- so how Sudanese that is, depends on how Sudanese you are..
                      I am very proud to be Sudanese just not proud of what our Govt stands for and how it conducts itself.

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            • 4 September 2012 10:49, by Ruach

              @jalabi.We will also build our Dam in South Sudan.All Larab will cry like dog hitted with a stone!You drink our urines from both Blue Nile and White Nile.You will never do anything than crying and we turn our deaf ears to all Gay communities.It is another war which will be worse than Wec-Thou/Heglig.Too bad for u

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            • 4 September 2012 11:29, by Ruach

              @jalabi.We will also build our Dam in South Sudan.All Larab will cry like dog hitted with a stone!You drink our urines from both Blue Nile and White Nile.You will never do anything than crying and we turn our deaf ears to all Gay communities.It is another war which will be worse than Wec-Thou/Heglig.Too bad for u

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              • 4 September 2012 12:47, by Jalaby

                Dumb Ruach,
                I can "imagine" that the south could build a dam in the White Nile River and block it from us but that’s impossible in Blue Nile River since it doesn’t run through south Sudan land! What? did you include Blue Nile State to south new map like Heglig or what?!
                Do you know the White Nile River provides the River Nile with only 15%?

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            • 4 September 2012 11:31, by Ruach

              Wise monybeer!

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        • 4 September 2012 09:34, by Makavelli

          Jalaby,
          "who owns the Nile"? well that might be a difficult question for anyone to answer but here is quote from one of Ethiopia’s former strong man. "if Sadat wants to protect the Nile basin because water is life to his people, he must know that the Nile has one of its sources in the Ethiopia he wants to destroy. it is from here that comes the dark blue alluvial soil so dear to the Egyptian...

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          • 4 September 2012 09:50, by Makavelli

            Cont...
            Fellahin. Furthermore, Ethiopia has a head of state who cares for the of his people." what this quote mean according my interpretation that Ethiopia is ready to go to with Egypt if they dear to mess with their progresses. so if your criminals regime try to thump it nose at Ethiopia’s interests, they will pay the hefty price for their cooperation with Egypt.

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            • 4 September 2012 12:57, by Jalaby

              Makavelli,
              No war will erupt between any of the river nile country,we will never support Egypt "if and only if" they decide to Ethiopia,in the same time we will never support Ethiopia if they decide to go ahead and build a dam that may badly hurt Egypt because both nations are our brothers.
              I believe they will sit down and work together at the end of the day!

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              • 4 September 2012 12:59, by Jalaby

                I mean we will never support Egypt "if" they decide to attack Ethiopia and destroy their dams!

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                • 4 October 2012 14:12, by Extraterrestrial

                  You are parroting too much, no Ethiopian care about a fake wannabe Arabs stand point, if there is any problem with Egypt you are going to be the first to be bombed. There can be no war with Egypt without first demolishing Khartoum.

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        • 4 September 2012 10:49, by master

          jalaby how r u
          janobean must not try to do the same as ethiopia did because we will finishing them at all

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  • 4 September 2012 07:20, by Madina Tonj

    Well, we Southern Sudanese were aware what Arabs were trying to do particular, Egyptian politicans having poorly thinking that, they are still playing role in Sudan unfortunately, they had never success for what they were trying to block referendum on Southern Sudanese people. Now they felt jolousy but there is no way and Sudan would never be same again that is the fact.On Water issue don’t cause

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  • 4 September 2012 07:20, by Akol Liai Mager

    It is a serious issue despite the fact that nothing is new in this leaked document. There is something that Arab of North Sudan may need to consider that’s they are the ones to pay big price for their involvement in this Egyptian aggression in making. All African Sudanese and of course South Sudan will stand by Ethiopia and Nasir Dam may be knocked first before Great Dam of Ethiopia.

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  • 4 September 2012 07:21, by Madina Tonj

    Well, we Southern Sudanese were aware what Arabs were trying to do particular, Egyptian politicans having poorly thinking that, they are still playing role in Sudan unfortunately, they had never success for what they were trying to block referendum on Southern Sudanese people. Now they felt jolousy but there is no way and Sudan would never be same again that is the fact.On Water issue don’t cause

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  • 4 September 2012 07:21, by Madina Tonj

    Well, we Southern Sudanese were aware what Arabs were trying to do particular, Egyptian politicans having poorly thinking that, they are still playing role in Sudan unfortunately, they had never success for what they were trying to block referendum on Southern Sudanese people. Now they felt jolousy but there is no way and Sudan would never be same again that is the fact.On Water issue don’t cause

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  • 4 September 2012 07:33, by 4Justice

    This would be suicidal for the Egyptians if a retaliatory strike is made on the Aswan dam, entire cities along the nile including Cairo would be wiped out!

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    • 4 September 2012 14:24, by sudani ana

      4 Justice
      It is a well known fact that Egypt’s High Dam is build to be indestructable by conventional weapons/bombs. It can only be destroyed by nuclear bombs.

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      • 4 September 2012 15:12, by South South

        Sudan ana,
        Shut up your dirty ass. High Dam can be destroyed by any weapons. Two things here you and Northern Sudanese Dumb need to know.
        1- The flights between Khartoum and Juba will start soon, sweet.
        2- Why Sudanese young men are for sell to Libya ? Poor country.

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  • 4 September 2012 09:15, by WiseMonyBeer

    Antenov has dropped two bombs. More to follow on jönközland.

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  • 4 September 2012 09:27, by Ayman fadul

    maybe this document was intentionally leaked to warn the Ethiopain that if they didn’t come to term with the Egyptian, they have to expect the unexpectable..
    meantime what the hell do we benefit from allying Egypt against Ethiopia, do we get halaib back!!
    i will not be surprised if Egypt paid our cabinet out to agree

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  • 4 September 2012 10:25, by Eyoel

    Inciting fear and creating havoc have been some of the strategies that Egyptians used to retard any hydro-electric developments in Ethiopia over Nile. All their techniques in waging a proxy war has been successfully disabled so far. Now they are thinking of pulling their other cards Creating terror and havoc through direct confrontation over my people whose focus is on fighting poverty. More than

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  • 4 September 2012 10:57, by Gabriel KK

    If Sudan and Egypt failed to defeat SPLA, Then what do you think Egypt would do to Ethiopia? Ethiopia is very strong military. That would be the end of Sudan if it is true and it is a strong signal to other Nile basin Countries.

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  • 4 September 2012 11:14, by AAMA

    We shouldn’t support both countries because they occupy our lands. If this dam doesn’t affect our interests then they should sort out their problems themselves. Both should relinquish our occupied lands before even dreaming of any strategic cooperation. Unfortunately we remained a weak country, that’s why such reports pop up. Both countries are very close to us but our interest should come first.

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  • 4 September 2012 11:33, by Asmera

    If Egypt tries to attack the new millennium dam, the consequence will highly affect North Sudan and Egypt to the maximum level. Now we can easily attack the Sudanese dam and also Aswan. We will see who will be in trouble.
    Egypt has been trying to De-stabilizing all east Africa regions during last eras especially by using Eritrea as an instrument, but we managed it all. God is with us.

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  • 4 September 2012 11:39, by The Ethiopian Hero

    I feel this is ridiculous, and I wish it should be extremely ridiculous agreement among two foolish. Peace and discussion based agreements with mutual interested and respect should be the fundamental guiding point. No benefit from war and there is no winner in war, but this is a good point to consider that Sudan will be at greater risk than any of the other regional countries.

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    • 4 September 2012 13:09, by Akol Liai Mager

      I am sure, Egyptians are not that emty-heads. They will not attack Ethiopia’s Dam, and if they do, I doubt that Ethiopians may hesitate in hitting Rosseires Dam in Sudan and Nasir Dam in South Egypt as a retaliatory move. Egyptian retired Generals have already voiced their opposition to Egyptian assault on Ethiopia, not for love, but for the great consequences on Egypt because of such action.

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    • 4 September 2012 21:30, by mohamed mahgoub

      The E. hero unfortunately u r right we have a very strange govnt the NCP to survive in power can try every stupid thing ,they don’t have the ability to do this kind of strategic think for the good of their ppl only good at killing them and creating wars .wikileaks is a well known whistle blower has no interst other than facts I don’t believe in conspiracy theory here

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  • 4 September 2012 13:29, by Jalaby

    Guys, the Millenium dam project is on hold now and pending finance after the world bank refused to finance it because it is disputable project and investors can’t risk their money, the project cost huge money,around $5bn, just exceeds $1bn of the money that southern authorities stole of $4bn from the south oil money!

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    • 4 September 2012 16:31, by Awalom Alula

      Dear Friend
      are you day dreaming or you are trying to confuse the readers? I am saying this because the millenium dam has never been stopped and is progressing ahead of achedule. as my government time and again has made it clear we never ever had intended to harm our egyptian brothers by unnecessarily overutilizing the nile water. the millitary issue is something I do not comment about now.

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      • 4 September 2012 21:21, by Jalaby

        Dear Awalom,
        You are dreaming my friend because you want to build a dam which cost $4.8bn while your pockets are empty of money!
        China agreed only to finance the turbines and other equipments that cost around $1.8bn but still Ethiopia in search loop to find more financiers to complete the rest of the money but no luck so far!

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        • 4 September 2012 21:34, by Jalaby

          To date, the World Bank and other investors are reluctant to to get involved given that Ethiopia has not yet developed sound partnerships with other countries in order to share the electricity!
          It’s true that Ethiopian embassy in Khartoum asked Sudanese business men to invest in Millennium dam in attempt of attracting money, I personally believe this dam will benefit Sudan!

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          • 4 September 2012 21:39, by Jalaby

            The main obstacle is:Ethiopia lacks the necessary funds to see the project to completion. In fact, they can barely get it off the ground.
            If Ethiopian government told you that the project is up and running then they’re lying to you my friend and selling you dream! here what supports my point:
            http://www.greenprophet.com/2011/04/ethiopia-cant-afford-the-new-nile-dam/

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            • 5 September 2012 11:56, by Awalom Alula

              MY Dear Friend
              if you guys think Ethiopia in no way has the capacity to build the dam then why is this outcry coming from every corner? as for Ethiopians we do not want harm anybody and we do not have any reason to cry cause we are doing what we feel is right and time will tell who is right and who is not. I am sure the report from Wikileaks is not coming out of nothin and this teels the truth.

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            • 5 September 2012 12:02, by Awalom Alula

              I am sure there was a genuine concern from the Egyptian people and our government has made it clear that we only need this dam for hydro and this does not affect the flow and magnitude of water reachin your teritory. hence this, I am sure tells our intention, but you can pray for Ethiopia to lack the finance and woud not be able to complete it.what we can do is mind our business finish the project

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            • 5 September 2012 12:09, by Awalom Alula

              come on Jalaby come to your senses and try to see the reality that we can do anything viable without affecting your interest and I do not see the reason why you guys keep on seeing everything negatively. it is an open secret that you even had a project to sell the nile water to third party and why should you think we can not do anything on the nile at all. it is time to understand the issue right.

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    • 4 October 2012 14:07, by Extraterrestrial

      Why you are parroting here if you know for sure Ethiopia don’t have the capacity to build the dam. You seem believing what you wish, actually daydreaming. Wake up fake wannabe Arab.

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  • 4 September 2012 13:42, by Northern Sudanese

    We in north sudan should better stay away from this nile dispute, we don’t have a problem anyway our population is faaar less than the one in egypt and in ethiopia. Egypt doesn’t own the nile, and we in sudan can highly benefit from this ethiopian new dam. This report is fake, we support the project why would we allow egypt to built an airbase?
    and i don’t know why asylum seekers are crying here?

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  • 4 September 2012 19:24, by Eastern

    It is preposterous for Egypt to think that it can fight off all the riperian countries sharing the Nile waters. The 1925 Nile Water Agreement was between a colonial administration on behalf of the Sudan and Egypt; thus it is nugatory. South Sudan is a new country that is not party to this archaic agreement - South Sudan is not bound by any legal agreement to respect this obsolate pact!!!

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  • 4 September 2012 21:43, by mohamed mahgoub

    Egypt is the only nation in the Nile basin depend %100 solely on the Nile they have no other natural resources while the others rich with lakes and long rainy seasons so it would be a foolish idea to involve the militay into it, coz they r the only looser

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