Home | News    Thursday 22 September 2011

Sudan’s economy seen shrinking in 2011-2012: IMF

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September 21, 2011 (WASHINGTON) – The economy of post-secession Sudan will experience contraction in growth in the years 2011 and 2012, according to data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

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Olivier Blanchard(2nd-R), chief economist for the IMF speaks September 20, 2011 during a press briefing on the World Economic Outlook report at IMF headquarters in Washington, DC (AFP)

Sudan lost 75% of its oil reserves after the southern part of the country became an independent nation last July denying the north billions of dollars in revenues. Prior to the country’s breakup, Sudan produced close to 500,000 barrels per day.

In its World Economic Outlook published this week, the IMF projected a negative real GDP growth for Sudan; -0.2% in 2011 and -0.4% in 2012. This is down from the 6.5% growth achieved in 2010 and an average of 6.7% in the years 2003-2009.

The economy will nonetheless rebound in 2016 to a 5.5% growth rate.

This month the Sudanese minister of finance and national economy Ali Mahmood Hassanein told reporters in Abu Dhabi that economic growth would be around 5% in 2011 and 6% in 2012.

The IMF further forecasted a moderate worsening of Sudan’s current account balance as percentage of GDP from -6.7% in 2010 to -7.3% in 2011 and -7.6% in 2012.

Current account balance is defined as a country’s net trade in goods and services, plus net earnings from rents, interest, profits, and dividends, and net transfer payments (such as pension funds and worker remittances) to and from the rest of the world during a specific period of time.

According to the report, consumer prices will increase by 20% in 2011 before dropping to 17.5% in 2012. The figure was at 13.0% in 2010.

Unemployment rate on the other hand will decline from 13.4% in 2011 to 12.2% in 2012.

The impact of the economic situation is beginning to be felt by the ordinary citizens in Sudan in the form of rising food prices and persistent shortage in foreign currency available.

The Bank of Sudan (BoS) governor Mohamed Khair al-Zubeir gave the clearest indication of depletion in the country’s foreign exchange reserves by saying that he asked Arab countries to deposit funds into his institution and commercial banks.

"I have requested the governors to deposit some reserves in the central bank and also in Sudanese commercial banks," al-Zubeir told Reuters in an interview after a meeting of Arab central bankers in Qatar’s capital last week.

Zubeir said he did not ask for a precise amount, but said: "We of course need about $4 billion for this year”.

The Sudanese finance minister said in separate statements that the country needs no less than $1.3 billion to cover the budget deficit.

Because of US sanctions as well as Sudan’s heavy debt, borrowing options for the East African nation are severely limited.

The Sudanese president Omer Hassan al-Bashir told parliament last July that an economic emergency programme has been put in place for the next three years that is focused mainly on austerity measures that aims to cut spending.

Earlier this year, the Sudanese government approved an austerity package that partially removed subsidies on sugar and petroleum products, a step welcomed by the IMF.

Sudan is hoping that transit fees charged to the South for using its oil pipelines will help cushion the impact of secession. However the two sides have yet to agree on how much should be assessed for using the North’s infrastructure.

(ST)

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  • 22 September 2011 10:01, by Bush

    Cheating, cheating us for many years by stealing all our resources for the development of the North, what next?
    I want to see Sudan’s economy on its knees, serious even if I’m not an economist by profession.

    repondre message

    • 22 September 2011 12:04, by okucu pa lotinokwan

      Good News,sudan economy seen shrinking Republic of south Sudan should take more care on the oil, which country in the world we should sell our oil to,for my opion the America company should replace the Chinese company who are sometimes are pro-Arabs.
      Two years to come if we southerners work very hard in agriculture sector our economy will improve by itself where Dollar will be like paper in every one hands

      OKUCU PA LOTINOKWAN

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    • 22 September 2011 17:31, by kimo

      you will not see the northern economy on its knees ,you know why?COZ it was you the southerners pushing it dawn,you are just consumers ,can you tell me what you have been contributing to sudan economy ?nothing ,just taking you dont give any thing>>>you are now importing tomatoes from uganda..you are dying of hunger now because no body is willing to work...dont talk about oil because you dont know how the northerners struggle to get it extracted...we experienced hardship to make this oil a reality ...now show me how you would handle the money pumping into your economy from the oil..if only you leave us alone we will be ok..please drag your useless people from the north we will feel good,by the way ,did you hear that a backward migration have started (YOUR PEOPLE FLEEING WAR AND HUNGER)

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  • 22 September 2011 10:49, by Ngiechjam

    Me I don,t care about whether North Sudan ,ill experience contraction in growth, good that Saudi Arabia stopped meat import to Sudan due to higher prices let Khartoum/Sudan starve as they think in April that South Sudan ,ill have nowhere to get goods from my question to dump p,ple in Khartoum did South Sudan extinct because of the blockage of the roads?????
    It reflect back to u when hearing two days ago that Sudan and South Sudan agreed to military trade on the boundary what have experienced then this is second question.
    Better South Sudan stop goods exported from Sudan I mean North Sudan not Sudan.
    South Sudan oyyyeyyeyeyye
    Moch aye Ngic ke ci deet yic yen acol kieth Muorcieng gook

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  • 22 September 2011 12:40, by mohammed ali

    Pathetic!

    If Saudi will not import our meat we will not starve, we wil eat more; we will eat our meat.

    These are the IMF "projections" and not a prophcy! After-all there is world wide economic down-turn, why should Sudan be an exception!

    More-over this really very good result! If we lost 75% of our oil revenues and 20% 0f population ,presumably productive and the economy is going to shrink by only by - 0.2% ; then we are doing very vey well.

    Prices are rising in Sudan and it is obvious that by resricting export of food products we will increase the supply within our border and subsequently prices will come
    down. We are resposerable only to our people

    repondre message

    • 22 September 2011 13:41, by Force 1

      Mohammad, according to Zubeir “We of course need about $4 billion for this year” The Sudanese finance minister said in separate statements that the country needs no less than $1.3 billion to cover the budget deficit.

      “The IMF projected a negative real GDP growth for Sudan; as -0.2% in 2011 and -0.4% in 2012. This is down from the 6.5% growth achieved in 2010 and an average of 6.7% in the years 2003-2009”.

      You remember yesterday that I told you Sudan is desperate to pay its bills! How did I know that? And here, you’re still defending meat!

      I know there is nothing you can do about it, but accept the fact that you’re going down for the serious Depression

      repondre message

      • 22 September 2011 15:15, by mohammed ali

        Force,

        Let us suppose what you understood is right , what benfit do you get? Why should it make you happy? It is just pathetic!

        Zubair wants capitalize the central bank , not to pay his bills, because he is paying them now! To cpitalize a bank means that you can borrow more and lend more. Same thing happened to private banks in US and UK. Both government bought shares in private bank to raise their capital. Royal bank of Scotland now is more than 80% owned by the government. There is a ratio between your assets and your loans which be balanced so as that you can get a loan. Even at a personal level, if you donnot have " money or assets " capital" nobody will lend you money and he gives to in prporation to what you have!

        What is GDP ? Do you know? Growth Domestic Product...Do you know how it is calculated?

        It is caculated like this:

        Government spending + (export - import) + private consumption + gross investment. From this you will see if only loss of population and subcequetly loss consumption will reduce the GDP. Sudan lost 20% of it’s population and lost 0.2 % of it’s GDP , what an achievement! At least our brother from the south living with will not starv or die of hunger!

        Sorry for spoiling your festivitie

        repondre message

    • 23 September 2011 15:38, by Ngiechjam

      Mohamed
      It made me laugh when seeing traders wailing in Khartoum against Gov,t that their goods have rotten in the factories and ware houses due to road blockage towards Junub Abib said by (Wardi)
      Today one kg of beef in Khartoum is 39 SDG any dog can deny? or u don,t know hat is happening in Sudan.
      Thanks anyway u know what is going on in ur country.

      repondre message

  • 22 September 2011 21:29, by Tut G

    The economic is shrinking, that is the beginning and i can see there is now way to avoid farther more it will get worse if S Sudan shift the coarse of their oil to east Africa, and the North Sudan will blame themselves for the the robbery they are now doing " asking for $32/barrel compare to world standard of $.41 as in Chad"

    Good luck North Sudan

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  • 25 September 2011 08:42, by AAMA

    Actually, that not all that bad, I expected it to be worse. If those predictions are true, then that’s great for the normal citizens. The only problem I see is this endless evilness I noticed in some of the comments here which is pathetically fuel by an expired injustice excuse. We lived and prospered without the southern oil and with the southern problems. Now, we don’t have the southern problem and our oil resources are still hugely under explored. We only need peace and we will reach it because everybody fighting today in Sudan believes in Sudan (not in a part of it), so despite the bitterness, peace will prevail one day in our beloved country because all the people fighting today believe in it.

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    khOREv7aHOc8fDzN5dMv3VJg1ZUErhssanyong madeira plastica composite decking This really answered my problem, thank you!

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  • 26 May 2013 04:12, by seth0098

    For the most furniture part, I am in agreement with bean bag chairs what you wrote. couch It’s certainly reading furniture what others have to say on the subject matter.great cheap bean bag chairssofa

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