Home | Comment & Analysis    Monday 29 June 2009

What can Sudan learn from Iran’s Green Revolution?

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By: Dalia Haj-Omar*

June 28, 2009 — While the world has been closely monitoring Iran’s “Green Revolution” in the last few days, little analysis has come from the Sudanese media and political leadership on the relevance of this historic event to the political scene in Sudan. And the lessons that Sudan’s civil society, political parties and donors can capture in the months before the national election scheduled for early 2010. This article assumes a scenario where the National Congress Party (NCP) will win the election and argues that all stakeholders should use a long-term approach to engage the NCP in the months before the elections and long afterwards on issues related to transparency, equal distribution of wealth and building infrastructure outside the Center to benefit the rural areas that lack basic services—mainly health and education. Iran’s Green Revolution was driven by the power of a large, educated middle class that has growing expectations and a conviction that their citizenship rights are sacred. Sudan is a long way from that, and a short-term focus on the outcome of an election and on power politics will only be detrimental to peaceful democratic transformation.

There is much to be admired and learned from Iran’s courageous youth and middle class who are asking the very legitimate question, "Where is My Vote?". However, I see few words or actions of support from the Sudanese people, political parties or Sudan’s independent civil society in support of Iranians who have risked and continue to risk their lives for the truth under oppressive conditions and through the most populous, peaceful and symbolic people-led demonstrations the Middle East has ever experienced. In recent days the Iranian regime started to use violence against demonstrators and arrested prominent opposition members. If this had been Gaza we would have been drowned in pleas for support and government-organized demonstrations in Sudan. Of course authoritative regimes have no interest in drawing attention to Iranians suffering under the iron fist of their own unyielding dictatorship. But I am sure that regimes in Africa, the Islamic and the Arab world are watching with fear, and wondering if what is happening "there" could happen "here".

There are many ideological parallels that make Iran’s experience relevant to Sudan, so let’s not lose this opportunity to reflect and to act. What is happening in Iran is a window of opportunity for Sudanese civil society to show that it is part of a global movement that has universal values and aspirations. It is also a chance to start a renewed, creative, realistic and inclusive dialogue on peaceful democratic transformation. Sudan’s independent civil society is often branded by the NCP as "communist", "secular", "un-Islamic" or simply "opposition". Iran’s Green Revolution shows that freedom and citizenship rights are universal and that even an Islamic regime that came through legitimate elections can be questioned and rejected by those who put it in power.

Sudan is very far from Iran’s political context and from having political institutions that function. However, a pivotal moment in Iran’s recent history came with the election of 1997 that brought to power the reformist Islamic regime of Mohmmed Khatimi. Since then Iran’s middle class has doubled through expanded access to health and education. Hence modernizing a large portion of Iran’s population and improving the situation of women by giving them equal educational and professional opportunities. Today, 70 percent of Iran’s population are the youth who are challenging Ahmedinajad and his regime, which has been unable to meet their needs for employment; free, competitive markets and an equitable distribution of oil wealth.

In comparison, Sudan’s middle class is shrinking very fast. Quality education is limited to the elite and institutions of higher education are mostly clustered around the capital and are bias in their admission against students from rural areas. Not to mention that most new graduates do not have the skills necessary for a globalized world and are not able to easily join the labor market. Although there is an obvious economic boom, it is limited to the capital and benefits a small slice of the population. Rural areas suffer from abysmal access to schools and medical care. Sudan is trapped in excessive centralization of power and wealth.

Recent events in Iran also show that power comes in numbers—some estimates of the June 16 demonstration (some prefer to call it a march) in Tehran say that 7 million people showed up (almost half of Tehran’s population). The first four demonstrations were mostly peaceful characterized by no riot police, silence, the color green and strong slogans that captured the attention of the world such as, "where is my vote", "Mousavi, go get my vote back", "God is great and truth will prevail", “Democracy does not equal Dead Student”, “Stop Killing Us”, “We are not rioters”, “Silence is not acceptance” and “The key to victory: Calmness, Hope and Patience”. Those words and the powerful images that accompanied them were shared with the world mostly by Iranian citizens who tactically responded to their government’s ban on international media by using their own phone cameras and digital cameras and by posting images and words on You Tube, Twitter and other internet outlets. Although some have called this a “Twitter Revolution”, this is nothing but an Iranian revolution. Iranians wrote their own story, created their own history and shared with the world what their regime would have otherwise kept hidden. A journalist from the BBC (the network was banned from Iran) commented about the inflow of information coming from Iranian citizens by saying, "The days when regimes can control the flow of information are over.”

Sudan’s independent media suffers from excessive censorship. There is a great lesson to learn from Iranian youth about alternative media and the power of citizen journalism. Iranian youth are not only highly educated in comparison to their Sudanese counterparts, but also technologically savvy and have long ago figured out how to bypass government proxies.

With Sudan’s national elections around the corner there is great pessimism amongst the independent civil society as the challenge of voter education is immeasurable and the time, resources and freedom to conduct such activities limited. There is similar pessimism amongst the youth and the educated class who believe that this election will not bring change. They say there is no alternative leadership that will bring the stability and relative economic progress we see today, and therefore they question the point of participating in an election that will bring the same old faces.

Not only is one election not likely to lead to a consolidated democracy, but an excessive focus on the short-term and on the outcome of the next election is a fatal approach. The question is, if the NCP comes to power after the elections of 2010, how can Sudanese citizens ensure that the regime will be more accountable, transparent about the use of national resources, ready to address issues of social and economic injustice and committed to improving access to services in rural areas, hence lifting the rural populations from extreme poverty? If the NCP is forced to address these issues before the election then a dialogue can continue afterwards and they can be questioned on what they deliver or fail to deliver. So far many in civil society and among opposition parties refuse to entertain a dialogue with the NCP that is focused on tangible issues rather than on power politics. With a little bit of imagination and long-term vision this might be the strategy for future progress— a strategy that requires patience and persistence.

For donors who are planning to pour millions of dollars on election administration, monitoring and voter education in the next six months: a more sustained and firm dialogue with the regime focused on political, social and economic rights coupled with a long-term investment in citizen participation and civic education maybe more practical than the sudden and short-lived dumping of funds prior to an election.

* The author is a Sudanese living in France



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  • 29 June 2009 06:28, by oshay

    Well Sudan must learn that it must alert of those expatriates who do anything to obtain an Asylum visa with their wishful stories and live in western capitals and try to stir dissent amongst their people for their own gain.

    I will definitely be voting NCP because they are by the best government Sudan had ever had , as a matter of fact I truly believe that theNCP should have its own College named the NCP School Of Diplomacy And International Relations due to their ingenious methods of dealing with difficulties and turning every plot of Sudan on its head, these men are LEGENDS. Look at Senegal, its president said he will not offer Bashir asylum yet now he wants to withdraw from the ICC.

    The NCP has showed what it has done with its Oil, something our little friend in the South can’t seem to be able to do. North Sudan is prospering and god willing it will continue to do so.

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    • 29 June 2009 10:05, by musa

      my friend Oshay your comment does not reflect any political will in this stage.matter here is, will NCP encourage positive things rather than negative.in the issue s.sudan or darfur, it is good to convenience people thruogh development and not destruction.

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  • 29 June 2009 07:51, by Abdel-Rahman

    Lessons may be drawn not only from the Iranian elections but also the Lebanese elections before them, and the Kenyan elections, the elections in Zimbabwe and I assure you the Sudanese and Civil Society in Sudan are actively discussing and sharing insights and reflections from these experiences. Only yesterday I was talking to a CS activist and colleague who was a monitor at the Lebanese elections and they will be organizing a workshop which will bring together a number of recent experiences (not the Iranian experience, still too raw and hot to handle) and share these with CS and individuals trying to make the best of what is increasingly looking like a salvage operation of the elections.

    Meanwhile I agree with the short-sightnedness that is gripping not only the international community but also the political parties as well as CS. Our leaders, intellectuals and CS activisits at best can only see up to the referedum whereas most are only focussed on the elections in February 2010. In my opinion - it is this lack of a vision for our country that keeps us in the rut we’re in. ’Problem solving is the busy work of a people who have lost their vision or sense of purpose’.

    We need new and fresh thinking - visionary leaders who are willing to sacrifice and challenge the status quo. We need to always remind ourselves that we each have a piece of the puzzle that will make the picture more complete - NCP, UMMA, SPLM, expatriate, migrants.....this country is ours, not yours, his, or mine, it is ours.

    In closing I would just like to say that it is people like the writer of this article who truly show that there is hope - people who take the time to read, listen reflect and offer their 2 cents.

    Thank you for your thoughts and reflections ya Dalia Haj-Omar.

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    • 29 June 2009 09:10, by Lokorai

      Security forces in Sudan will not lie down and allow that uprising to take place before their watch, its therefore not realistic to have the same situation in Iran replicated in the Sudan.

      What seems to happen now is that Mr. Kiir of the SPLM has shown many that he’s not interested in the job or that he has come to himself that he won’t do much to topple Al Bashir democratically and so if the Sudanese are serious, they could rally behind Al Mahdi, Nhial, or Ali Osman Al Taha.

      Dr. Khalil, Dr. Turabi, Pagan, Margani are radicals and no much could be expected from them.

      Lokorai

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  • 29 June 2009 10:24, by Akol Liai Mager

    Well, Muderers will vote for Muderers and that’s nothing new. They (Muderers) may win the elections because they have all tools/resources for terrorising and killing people, so if they don’t win they will jump into their killers machines as they did 20 years ago.

    But ther will be many Sudans this time and Sudan’s muderers will go into history as NIF has already booked the place.

    All Mullahs and Ayatolahs must seek pardon from their people before it is too late. Without public pardons, eternal peace will be a dream unmet for them forever.

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  • 29 June 2009 14:36, by Freedom Fighter

    Mr. Haj-Omar,

    The Word "Green Revolution" for Iran’s events is an exaggration from your side. What happening in Iran today can be described as a fight over piece of cake. It is a small fight among members of one family( The Iran Islamic Revolution of 1979 ). Do you know how many political parties were allowed to contest presidency seat. Nothing, no body. It was only members of Terrorists Revolutionary Guard. So, their election was far from a Democratic election. It’s the kind of election used to takeplace in South Africa under former evil apartheid regime. As far as the NCP and the Sudan concern, I don’t see any chances for Omar Albashir and his NCP to survive any real Democratic election in the Sudan for the following reasons;
    1. Omar Albashir and his NCP have seriously weaken the unity of country because of their Jihadist wars in the South Sudan, Nuba Montains, and Southern blue Nile.
    2. For the first time in the history of the Sudan, the country now is experiencing serious divisions, fightings, and killings between and among its people almost in ever corner of the country as a result of failed policies. 3. In the time of Omar Albashir, a Sudanese citizen has lost respect and dignity and became homelss, dispaced, and beggar. 4. Omar Albashir and his NCP have inflicted serious wounds in the heart of the country for their war against the people of Quran ( Darfurians ). 5. president of the Sudan is wanted by International Criminal Court ICC for crimes against humanity. And the list is very long. Omar Albashir and his party are the problems of the Sudan, not the solution. So, if Democratic election is to takeplace then it is best in interest of the Sudanese people to learn from experience of the USA election. Sudanese need to elect president who is not a muslim and not an arab for fresh start of our beloved country.

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  • 29 June 2009 17:21, by The Wiseman

    Good analysis.

    But also we can not imagine NCP winning the elections if we feel the guilt of the regime. Let us wait to see but all can be accepted for no one is sure of who to win.

    Preferably, SPLM wil win, not because it is good in service delivery but because it will not dictate over the marginalised people. It will try to unite the country.

    For NCP, there is no hope completely as it has been evidenced over the twenty years of its rule as a conservative dictatorial system. SPLM can not protract wars for it is in need of peace unlike the NCP that depends on war. SPLM will make sure West, Souh, East and North are equal and they will draw in service delivery with the NCP since they are all poor at that aspect.

    First reason!

    The Wiseman of Sudan

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