By Ahmed Elzobier

January 3, 2012 — Nobody could doubt that the rulers in Khartoum are addicted to war, but on one condition, that it is someone else who dies for their cause. As Hassan Al Turabi put it, "In Sudan, only the people have the privilege of dying,” but not the elites, of course.

A young man named Hisham Abas, chosen as the best writer in 2011, wrote on a Sudanese online website compelling and horrific stories about the wars in the south. They were forcefully recruited at the young age of 17 before even finishing their high school. Without proper training and with lies and deception they found themselves in the war zone in the south. He counted that over 600 young men died during his 10 months ordeal in the south in 1997, many of disease, others from bullets. Most of them had no idea what they were fighting for and some of them lost their sanity. After his experience he ended up developing an all-encompassing hatred for the regime in Khartoum and he wrote: "My hatred for this government, after my return from South Sudan, has increased. If you add all the hatred in the entire universe, it is not enough, it will be a tiny part of how I feel towards this criminal government which did not observe any humanitarian, ethical or religious standards. They did anything just to save themselves."

The late Al Khatim Adlan wrote an article in 2005 that asked very profound questions: Is it possible to achieve peace while keeping the ideology of war? What guarantees that they are not going to ignite problems somewhere else in this country that has already suffered because of their existence? And of course that’s just what they did.

The year 2011 started with the third of the country’s population in Southern Sudan overwhelmingly voting to separate from the rest of Sudan. On 4 January, 2011, President Omar al-Bashir visited the southern Sudan capital Juba just five days before the vote for the referendum. He told southerners he would celebrate the result the referendum with them, "even if you choose secession." He further promised, "Anything you need in terms of technical, logistical or professional support from Khartoum, you will find us ready to give it."

When the result was finally announced on 8 February he said, "We respect the people of south Sudan’s choice and we accept the result of the referendum according to what the commission announces." He also renewed his commitment to protect southerners remaining in north Sudan and pledged to work to resolve all outstanding north-south issues by July.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon asked the international community "to assist all Sudanese towards greater stability and development." The US State Department said, "We believe the right signals are being sent both in the north and south in terms of the upcoming referendum and respecting the results."

Many around the world seemed impressed with the rhetoric coming from Khartoum. Little did they know that Khartoum was planning for three wars and possibly four.

Khartoum’s masks of acceptance of the result of the referendum and the meaningless words of peace have worked as camouflage. Plan B is already operational, according to Small Arms Survey a build-up of heavy weapons in the South Kordofan and Abyei areas is underway, fuel storage facilities are completed, T-55 battle tanks have been brought in, and 12.7 mm machine guns mounted on Land Cruisers have been seen everywhere since March 2011 in South Kordofan.

Also in March, satellite imagery recorded by the US-based organization Satellite Sentinel Project confirmed the reinforcement of SAF troops, the construction or reinforcement of bases, and a new accumulation of arms and artillery in Southern Kordofan, with a notable addition of assets in El Obeid diverted to both Abyei and later Kadugli.

Once the regime was sure that its arms and guns were ready the nasty words were uttered. In April the rhetoric changed, the same reconciliatory Bashir of January and February was now saying something like, "I will repeat it 100 times: Abyei is a part of the north and it will remain a part of the north," to a crowd in Al Mugald on 27 April 2011. He warned SPLM that, "We are ready to win the election by the ballot box or ammunition boxes, where we pursue SPLM from mountain to mountain."

When the results showed that the National Congress Party (NCP) had won, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (North) refused to accept the results and announced its disengagement from the state government. The stage was ready for war. The sequence made clear that it would start in Abyie. On 20 May, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) bombed and then unilaterally moved into Abyei town, looting and burning. Almost the entire civilian population fled, approximately 100,000 people. Just exactly a month later on 5 June, fighting broke out between SPLM and SAF in Kadugli the capital of South Kordofan. Aerial bombardments intensified and ground assaults on areas of civilian population commenced. Many civilians fled the towns taking up refuge in the Nuba Mountains.

A glimmer of hope was seen, and many thought that the cycle of war might end when, on 28 June, the Government of Sudan and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (North) signed a framework Agreement in Addis Ababa on Political Partnership between the NCP and SPLM-N. This agreement included political and security arrangements in the Blue Nile and South Kordofan States. However, on 1 July 2011, President Bashir overruled the agreement signed between his party and the SPLM in Addis Ababa, saying he had ordered the army to continue its operations there until the state is "purged" and the "rebel" SPLM’s leader in the state, Abdel Aziz AL-Hilu, is caught and brought to justice.

Two months later the war started in the Blue Nile on 2 September 2011, many were killed, hundreds of SPLM supporters were arrested, and thousands were displaced or became refugees. According to the UNHCR report last week there are approximately 37,000 Sudanese refugees in Ethiopia.

But if you ask our addicted government who we should blame for such human tragedies, they will point to anyone but themselves: the SPLM, Zionism, America, and southern Sudan. It is well known from psychological studies that addicts usually blame others instead of accepting responsibility for their own actions and decisions. Counselors usually advice them that there is only one solution and that’s to take 100% absolute responsibility. However, many would doubt that they can ever make such a 180-degree change.

Our addicts ended the year by killing or assassinating Khalil Ibrahim, the leader of the Justice and Equality Movement – Bahsir called it divine/Godly revenge (many believe the operation was funded by Qatar and executed by France). However, they miscalculated this time because they have turned Khalil into a legendary and mythological figure "among his supporter and enemies", as Al Afandi noted in his recent article. This "callus act" as described by many Sudanese could lead to further escalation and assassinations; however, this time they might have the privilege to die themselves. In short, 2011 was annus horribilis for Sudan, as Queen Elizabeth II would describe.

The author is a Sudan Tribune journalist. He can be reached at ahmed.elzobir@gmail.com